LAST TIME: Brisbane Lions 17.17 (119) d Melbourne 11.12 (78), round 1, 2012, at the MCG
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Three weeks ago this fixture looked like a bottom-four bore, but the tide has slowly turned for both the Lions and Demons since upsetting premiership contenders West Coast and Essendon respectively in round 10. The Lions are coming off a strong win against the Western Bulldogs, while Melbourne thumped GWS by 78 points. Mitch Clark's unfortunate injury robs the contest of some extra punch, but the victor can make it three wins from four and take some genuine momentum into the second half of the season.
THE FOUR POINTS
BRISBANE LIONS
1. The noticeable improvement against the Bulldogs was the Lions' disposal efficiency. Jack Redden, Pearce Hanley, Simon Black and Mitch Golby all had more than 20 possessions at better than 85 per cent efficiency. Throw in another nine players over 70 per cent and you've got a much cleaner and crisper team than the first half of 2012.
2. Slowly but surely the midfield is relying less on Brownlow medallist Black. They won without him against West Coast, and with the champion on-baller still copping the tightest of Liam Picken tags against the Bulldogs, Tom Rockliff, Redden and Dayne Zorko ran riot. Black's contribution was significant, but his midfield mates are now consistently providing a helping hand.
3. It's not a case of teaching old dogs new tricks, but more of putting them back in their original homes. Daniel Merrett and Ash McGrath came to the club as forwards but after distinguished careers in the backline, again find themselves kicking goals. Voss has persisted with Merrett at full forward and the vice-captain has responded with 20 goals this season, while McGrath joined the party against the Dogs, finishing one shy of his career-best with five goals.
4. Aside from trying to win back-to-back matches for the first time this season, a victory on Sunday could launch an exciting final nine rounds for the Lions. They follow the Demons with matches against the Sydney Swans (away), St Kilda (home) and Gold Coast (away). Repeating the performance against the Bulldogs over the coming month certainly gives the Lions hope of improving from their 13th place on the ladder.
MELBOURNE
1.The loss of former Lion Clark is a major blow to the Demons and promoters of this game. Not only was he kicking goals and taking contested marks, he was providing ruck relief. The Demons will need to reassess their structure, either reshuffling to push Jeremy Howe forward or contemplate Stefan Martin filling the key forward/back-up ruckman role.
2.Switching defenders Col Garland and Jared Rivers forward has worked so far. It's important they separate the Lions defenders so they can't zone off and add extra numbers to each marking contest. James Magner's defensive pressure is proving important at ground level and the Demons recorded 20 tackles inside 50 last week.
3.The Demons were a different unit in round one, in attitude and personnel, and the result was disappointing. Colin Sylvia was injured in round one but he showed what he is capable of last week. He adds an explosive element to a midfield mix that is more workmanlike than dynamic at the moment.
4. We will be able to assess this round how much improvement the Demons' backline has made in 2012. Jonathan Brown did not play the last time the two teams met but Rockliff stood tall, and his good form has continued while Brown plays with presence. The backline is inexperienced but a strong bond is building.
AFL.com.au prediction: Brisbane Lions by 30 points
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL
