Statistics say that if you score 100 points in the AFL this year you are a 94.3% chance of winning.

It’s a formula that was faultless through the first six rounds and 31 games of the season, before two games last weekend proved no theory is guaranteed.

Both teams in the Sydney derby topped 100 last Saturday, when the Giants won by a point on the back of a last-minute Toby Greene goal, and Essendon and Geelong did likewise on Sunday when Essendon’s Sam Weidemann goaled in the last minute of his side’s 28-point loss.

Still, as the Brisbane Lions prepare for tonight’s sell-out Round 8 clash with Carlton at Marvel Stadium it’s a theory Lions fans will fancy given Brisbane have scored 100 points in each of their last four games and won all four. And the only time they conceded 100 was to Port Adelaide in Round 1, when they were badly beaten.

Likewise with the Blues, who are in their second season under Lions legend Michael Voss. They have kicked 100 points twice for two wins and have conceded 100 once for a loss.

Perhaps significantly, in an oddity that presents a further challenge for coach Chris Fagan and his troops, only three teams this season have scored 100 points at Marvel – Essendon against Gold Coast in Round 2, and in Round 4 it was Carlton against North and St.Kilda against Gold Coast.

The 100-point theory is just one small factor in a Brisbane-Carlton rivalry that encompasses 54 games and began in Round 10 1987, when the Blues won by 103 points at the old Princes Park.

Carlton went 13-4 against Brisbane in the Bears era and lead 29-25 overall, but post-merger it’s 21-16 to Brisbane, with the Lions having won six of the last seven games between the clubs.

At the Gabba the Lions have enjoyed a 15-7 head-to-head record after they split meetings 2-2 at Carrara in the early days, but in Melbourne it’s 8-20 overall – 3-12 at Princes Park, 0-2 at the MCG and 5-6 at Marvel Stadium.

Voss will coach against Brisbane for the second time, having lost by 33 points at the Gabba last year in an extension of what will be an infuriating mini-run for the Lions triple premiership captain and former coach.

Since being elevated to the senior assistant coaching role at Port Adelaide in 2019, and right into the inner brainstrust, Voss has found himself opposed to his former club five times for five losses.

This year Brisbane opened loss-win-loss before four wins on the trot see them fourth on the ladder, while Carlton started with a draw and three wins, but have gone loss-win-loss in the last three weeks.

Brisbane are 2-2 interstate, having lost to Port Adelaide in Adelaide in Round 1 and the Western Bulldogs at Marvel in Round 3 before wins over North Melbourne in Mount Barker in Gather Round and GWS in Canberra in Round 6.

Statistically, the rivalry is a statistician’s delight, with an overdose of big numbers.

Jonathan Brown kicked a club record 10 goals against Carlton in 2007 after Brad Hardie kicked nine in 1989 in a game which prompted the sacking of then Carlton coach Robert Walls, who two years later took over the Bears. Brown, Hardie and Alastair Lynch also have kicked seven against the Blues.

In the opposition camp, the recurring destroyer for Carlton against Brisbane was champion centre half forward Stephen Kernahan, who averaged four goals against the expansion club and kicked five or more seven times, including an equal club best nine in 1992. He shares this record with Lance Whitnall, who kicked nine against Brisbane in 2000.

Ex-Lions skipper Tom Rockliff holds the record for most possessions in a Brisbane v Carlton game at 48. Oddly, that came in a 38-point loss in 2016 at Marvel Stadium, when he still picked up three Brownlow Medal votes. Dayne Beams, another ex-captain, had 40 in a 65-point Gabba win in 2018.

Simon Black (4) and Rockliff (3) have had most games of 30 possessions or more for Brisbane, while Carlton games record-holder Craig Bradley (7) often dined out against Brisbane, with Scott Camporeale (5), Chris Judd (4), Marc Murphy (4), Fraser Brown (4).

Sam Walsh averages 31.75 possessions in four games against Brisbane, with three games of 30+, but in nine games against Brisbane captain Patrick Cripps has topped 30 possessions only once.

Black has polled most Brownlow votes in Brisbane v Carlton games at 17, having been in the votes seven times, while Jonathan Brown (12), Rockliff (11), Lachie Neale (6), Luke Power (6) and Nigel Lappin (6) next best for the Lions. Judd (12) and Bradley (12) head the Carlton vote with 12, from Kernahan (11), Fraser Brown (10), Justin Madden (9) and Marc Murphy (9). Walsh has six votes against Brisbane and Cripps just three.

There have been 12 players represent Brisbane and Carlton over 35 years, headed by Mitch Robinson, who finds himself in the rare position of having a son who is father/son eligible to both clubs. He played 100 games at Carlton from 2009-14 and 147 with Brisbane from 2015-2022.

Former Carlton captain Sam Docherty, who started his AFL career under Voss at Brisbane in 2013, will play against Brisbane under Voss tonight after having switched clubs in 2014.

Brendan Fevola, too, is a common player, having finished his career with 17 games at Brisbane in 2010 after 187 games with the Blues from 1999-2009.

Brad Pearce played in the 1995 Carlton premiership side in the highlight of a 77-game career with the Blues after he’d played two games with the Bears in 1993, while 2003 Brisbane premiership player Richard Hadley went the other way, playing 25 games at Carlton after 41 games in an injury-cruelled stay at the Lions.

Queenslander Tony Lynn is another of the great shared stories. Now coaching Mt.Gravatt, he played six games with the Bears in 1988 before a knee reconstruction seemingly put an end to his time in the AFL. But after a best afield performance for South Australia against Western Australia when playing with SANFL club Central Districts, followed by a standout performance for the Queensland/NT State of Origin side against Tasmania in Hobart in 1993, he was picked up by Carlton and played 27 games with the Blues.         

Lachie Henderson, pick #8 in the 2007 draft to Brisbane, played 15 games with the Lions from 2008-09 before heading to Carlton, where he played 102 games over six years. He finished his career with 89 games and a premiership at Geelong in 2021.

Dylan McLaren played in the 2004 grand final for the Lions amid 46 games with the club before 13 games with the Blues in 2000, blazing a trail later followed by fellow ruckman Cameron Wood.