LAST TIME: Brisbane Lions 18.15 (123) d Gold Coast 8.13 (61), round 21, 2011 at The Gabba
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The third edition of the QClash has all the ingredients to be the best so far. Gold Coast upset the Lions in the inaugural match last year, before the Lions exacted revenge on a weary opponent later in the season. This time around the Brown boys - Jonathan and Campbell (if he recovers from a groin injury) - will take part in the Queensland rivalry for the first time to give it some added starch. Matthew Leuenberger (Achilles) and Simon Black (hand) are huge outs for the home team, while the irresistible form of Gary Ablett ensures this should be a close contest.
THE FOUR POINTS
Brisbane Lions
1. How big is the loss of Leuenberger? In the round 21 match last year, the big ruckman was a whisker behind Black in the battle for best on ground. Ben Hudson is a workhorse and Billy Longer a great raw talent, but neither can match Leuenberger's work around the ground.
2. Against Carlton the Lions admitted the up-tempo game style was not for them, yet against Fremantle the slow-it-down, keepings-off tactic struggled to generate inside 50s. Finding that balance will be a key to beating a Suns team that grows an extra leg when they get a sniff of victory.
3. How can you stop Gary Ablett? The answer is you probably can't, but Andrew Raines will almost certainly get the task of slowing down the Suns' little master. Ablett's work-rate is phenomenal, but whatever disposal count he ends up with, if Raines can keep Ablett off the scoreboard and minimise his influence in the forward half, the Lions will almost certainly win.
4. After such a promising first-up win over Melbourne and successive losses to Carlton and Fremantle, this is a must win match. The Lions have a horrendous draw ahead including matches against Collingwood, Essendon and Geelong. A loss could quickly send the season spiralling out of control before it has a chance to get started.
Gold Coast
1. Can the Suns string two good performances together? Last year Gold Coast invariably followed up a win (or honourable loss) with a horror effort. Last week they were superb against Essendon, and an equal - or better - effort this week will show a significant step forward from 2011.
2. Nathan Bock - forward or back? Last week the All Australian started back but when he moved forward in the second quarter, the Suns looked a different team. He gave them a strong option, contested well and helped keep the ball in the forward 50. But with Jonathan Brown in for the Lions, chances are Bock could be spending time down back again.
3. Karmichael Hunt played his best game in the AFL since switching from rugby league against Essendon last week. His move to the midfield at the start of the season has seen him quickly become one of the Suns' best contested ball exponents and will need to replicate his effort to help Ablett and David Swallow in the clinches on Saturday night.
4. Who's leading the magic show this time? When Gold Coast won the inaugural QClash last year it was on the back of a majestic performance from former Lion Jared Brennan and some flashes of brilliance from Nathan Krakouer and Liam Patrick. With Ablett doing his best Houdini impersonation on a weekly basis, just who can step up to make the difference?
AFL.com.au prediction: Brisbane Lions by 18 points
The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the AFL or its clubs
