Lachie Neale is fifth favourite for the 2023 Brownlow Medal at $13, according to Lions betting partners NEDS. Not exactly an outsider, but longer odds than he has been in recent years.

Neds have the Lions co-captain at $13 in the Brownlow market, behind Western Bulldogs captain Marcus Bontempelli ($2.90) and Collingwood’s Nick Daicos ($2.90), Port Adelaide’s Zac Butters ($5.50) and Melbourne’s Christian Petracca ($6.50).

Only three other players are shorter than triple figures - Richmond’s Tim Taranto ($51), Sydney’s Errol Gulden ($51) and Port’s Connor Rozee ($81).

Yet if weekly voting by the AFL coaches is any sort of guide – as it should be – Neale is right in the mix to win the game’s highest individual award next Monday night.

If you convert the weekly 5-4-3-2-1 votes in the AFL Coaches Association Player of the Year award into notional 3-2-1 Brownlow votes – or ‘Coachlow’ votes – Neale would poll 24 votes to finish a close fourth behind Bontempelli (28), Daicos (26.5) and Butters (25.33).

Completing the ‘Coachlow’ top 10 would be Gulden (23.25), Petracca (23), Fremantle’s Caleb Serong (21.25), GWS’ Toby Greene (20.08), Rozee (19.33) and Gold Coast’s Noah Anderson (19).

Neale finished fifth in the coaches award with 91 votes, behind Butters (109), Bontempelli (102), Daicos (99) and Petracca (98), and ahead of Gulden (88), Rozee (87), Serong (86), Greene (77) and St.Kilda’s Jack Sinclair (86).

He polled in 12 games – fewer only than Petracca (17), Butters, Rozee and Adelaide’s Jordan Dawson (15), Bontempelli (14), Daicos (13) and Sinclair (13)

Significantly, Neale polled three 10’s in the coaches award, when rated best afield by Lions coach Chris Fagan and the opposition coach, and three 9’s, when he was considered best by one of the coaches and second-best by the other coach. He also picked up two 7’s and two 6’s.

Only three players polled more 10’s than Neale - Butters (7), Bontempelli (6) and Serong (4) – while Petracca, Daicos, Gulden, Sinclair, Collingwood’s Jordan deGoey, Hawthorn’s James Sicily, North Melbourne’s Luke Davies-Uniacke, Adelaide’s Taylor Walker, Carlton’s Charlie Curnow also polled three 10’s.

Bontempelli also polled three 9’s but Butters’ only other A-grade rating was one 8.

Other Lions to figure prominently in the notional ‘Coachlow’ are the club’s three other members of the 2023 All-Australian squad - co-captain Harris Andrews (8.5), Charlie Cameron (8.5) and Joe Daniher (7.5).

If there was an award for cumulative medal votes over Neale’s five-year stint with the Lions he’d virtually be guaranteed it already.

In a remarkable stretch of elite performance, he has polled 93 votes in 2019-20-21-22 to head Melbourne’s Clayton Oliver (82), Bontempelli (75), Port Adelaide’s Travis Boak (75) and Carlton’s Patrick Cripps (70). And that despite playing only 17 games for eight votes in 2021 due to injury.

Neale’s votes-per-game average through this period of 1.22 heads that of Oliver (1.00), Wines (0.93), Bontempelii (0.91), Boak (0.90) and Cripps (0.90).

He polled a staggering 31 votes in the 17-game Covid season of 2020 to win by 10, polled 28 votes to finish second one vote behind Cripps in 2022, and he polled 26 votes in 2019 to finish equal third with Cripps behind Fremantle’s Nat Fyfe (33) and Geelong’s Patrick Dangerfield (27).

‘Coachlow’ votes suggest Neale could poll in 10 of 23 games this year – Rounds 5-7-9-10, Rounds 14-15-16-17 and Rounds 23-24.

In a count that is expected to be dominated heavily by the favorites, the ‘Coachlow’ suggests Daicos will hit the front in Round 5 and lead through to Round 18.

The leaderboard at that time, with six rounds to play, shows Daicos (27) clear of Petracca (21), Neale (19), Bontempelli (18), Butters (17), Anderson (17), Rozee (16) and Essendon’s Zach Merrett (16).

But Daicos won’t poll in Rounds 19-20 before a season-ending injury in Round 21.

The ‘Coachlow’ suggests Bontempelli will storm over the top, with maximum votes in Rounds 18-19-21-24 and possibly Round 23, when he split the coaches votes with West Coast’s Oscar Allen in a seven-point Eagles win.

Neale needs only to be a little closer at Round 22 to be every chance in a barnstorming finish.

He polled nine coaches votes in the Lions’ Round 23 win over Collingwood to share top billing with the Magpies’ Scott Pendlebury, and was clearly best afield according to the coaches in the Round 24 win over St.Kilda, when he polled another nine votes.

Neale will go into his fifth Brownlow count as a Brisbane player already sitting equal fourth on the club’s all-time vote tally, behind Simon Black (184), Michael Voss (150) and Jonathan Brown (112). He’s equal with Nigel Lappin and ahead of Jason Akermanis (91), Dayne Zorko (85) and Luke Power (83).

Having also polled 63 votes in 135 games with Fremantle, Neale’s career total of 156 votes sees him 27^th on the AFL’s all-time list.

Twenty-four votes this year would see him go past Shane Crawford (159), Kevin Bartlett (160), Garry Wilson (161), Adam Goodes (163), Keith Greig (165), Bill Hutchison (172), Travis Boak (174), Scott West (175), Kevin Murray (178) and Nathan Buckley (178), and pull level with Bob Skilton (180).

A further four votes would see him equal Black, who is 15^th on the all-time list.