Brisbane will uncomfortably wear the ‘favourites’ tag against a struggling Western Bulldogs side without its greatest player for the first time ever. This week’s deep dive into the numbers and statistics reveals more than you may think as an old rivalry resumes.
What were you doing in February 2018?
The last time that Brisbane hosted Western Bulldogs in the AFLW, the competition had eight teams, there was no 5-6-5 rule, and Taylor Smith had not played a game of senior football. It’s been a while.
After playing each other three times in the first two years of the AFLW, the Lions and Bulldogs have met just twice since, Brisbane winning both times by 32 points to claim a 3-2 head-to-head advantage. The second Wednesday AFLW game in history could almost be regarded as a new start to the rivalry between two of the league’s originals.
The originals of the originals
Ally Anderson has played every AFLW game for Brisbane and Ellie Blackburn every game for the Western Bulldogs… until now. Blackburn’s season-ending injury last Thursday forces the Tricolours to face life without her for the first time after 71 consecutive matches. There is no good time for a team to lose its best player, but playing the defending premiers when you’ve won one of your last 14 matches isn’t exactly a Christmas wish.
“Never waste the opportunity provided by a good crisis” - Machiavelli
The injury to Ellie Blackburn can in no way be described as “good”, but the crisis gives every Daughter of the West the opportunity to show that she has another level in her.
Isabelle Pritchard is not your typical AFLW inside midfielder. At 178cm, she is taller than every Brisbane on-baller, has a powerful left foot as displayed by her early goal against the Eagles last Thursday, and has been outperforming Blackburn for uncontested possessions (27), pressure acts (56) and tackles (23). The Lions haven’t faced Pritchard since she was a winger in her sixth match over two years ago. Whatever they learned about her that day will be of no use now.
Elaine Grigg was the player that people who saw last year’s South Australia Under 18 team went home raving about having gone to the match to watch Lauren Young. Grigg averaged 18 disposals per match moving between the midfield and half-forward. In her first year of AFLW, Grigg leads the Bulldogs for tackles inside forward 50 (5 out of 16 tackles overall) but has also shown an ability to keep her feet and follow those tackles with driving kicks for her key forwards. Giving the speedster more time on the ball is not out of the question.
Tall attitude
The loss of Blackburn also provides an opportunity for Season 7 All-Australian ruck Alice Edmonds, currently equal first in the league for hit-outs to advantage (31 - Tahlia Hickie is 8th with 21). Brisbane’s on-ballers may find that Edmonds varies her hit-outs more than previously as she makes greater use of Pritchard, Grigg, and the tough-tackling Dominique Carruthers (equal 4th in the AFLW with 27). Pritchard and Carruthers have more pressure acts in 2024 (56 and 52 respectively) than any Brisbane player (Belle Dawes and Courtney Hodder have 47 each) but a new configuration may give them more chances to attack.
Evidence for Machiavelli
Brisbane is Exhibit A in showing what can happen if you make the most of losing key players. With an entrenched game plan built around high pressure, the Lions are in a position where Craig Starcevich can rotate players during the congested fixture period and the team will still play like the Lions.
Evie Long gained a reputation through her Lions Academy, Queensland Under 18 and Sandgate Hawks days as a slick runner through opposition defences, but when ‘Starce’ notes a player’s “work ethic”, that usually means they’ve learned how to use their endurance to maintain pressure for four quarters. If Long has combined that with the skill that saw her bag a four-minute hat-trick for Queensland against the Allies last year, Lions fans are in for a treat.
Making up new numbers
The danger for opponents is that, having long dominated the pressure stats that Starcevich carries as he marches towards each post-match press conference, there are signs that the Lions are improving at the old school stats as well. Against Collingwood, Belle Dawes and Taylor Smith had nine score involvements each, one short of Dawes’ club record set against Hawthorn last year; Sophie Conway equalled the club record for inside-50s with seven; and Nat Grider, on a night when Brisbane’s tackle count was only marginally above its season average, pulled out a personal best with 10 tackles.
Approaching statistical milestones
Belle Dawes averages 8.3 contested possessions per match and needs 8 to join Ally Anderson and Emily Bates with 500 for the Lions. Orla O’Dwyer’s first uncontested possession will make her the fifth Lion to complete 400 (also Anderson, Bates, Sophie Conway and Bre Koenen).
Tahlia Hickie begins Round 4 with 96 marks and 98 clearances in her career while Jade Ellenger needs one more inside-50 entry for a century.
In the AFLW’s only ‘hump day’ match to date, 427 fans watched GWS host St Kilda in season six. That’s one record everyone can help break.
