One of the lowest points of Brisbane’s 2023 premiership campaign was the thumping dished out by Euro-Yroke (aka St Kilda) in the second last round. The good news for the Lions heading into their next meeting is that the deep dive into the stats and numbers shows plenty of differences between the lead-ins to each match.

Brisbane’s main purpose in this Week 10 clash is to get the four points over the Saints, but the context will be impossible to ignore completely. A win for the Lions, followed by a Richmond upset of Hawthorn, would see Brisbane probably move into second plus win the McClelland Trophy and its million-dollar prize. It would also vanquish the ghosts of the shock loss to the Saints last year which… ahhh, who are we kidding? That loss will haunt forever.

Better know your history

Brisbane must acknowledge that they’ve struggled against Euro-Yroke. The Lions won the first meeting, in season 6 at Sandringham, by five points on the back of one good quarter in which they kicked 3.2 while kicking 0.11 across the other three. Last year at RSEA Park, in winds over 40 kmh and without Cathy Svarc and Sophie Conway, Brisbane lost by more than a goal for the first time in nearly three seasons. Two late goals reduced the margin to a flattering 21 points.

Much has been said and written about the role that this loss played in the Lions going on to win the premiership, but for the fans, it also served as a kind of immunisation. Though devastating at the time, the match was rebranded after the Grand Final win as ‘the loss the Lions needed’. So when Brisbane lost to Geelong two weeks ago, the fanbase roared as one with an overwhelming “meh”. In the mind of a Lions AFLW fan, a loss with a round or two to go is the perfect sign that the team is on track. Minor premierships? McClelland Trophies? Just give us the flag, please.

‘History never repeats’ I tell myself before I go to sleep

Both sides know an upset could happen again. For Euro-Yroke, that generates hope; for Brisbane, it kills complacency. However, a lot has changed in a year. Firstly, Brisbane should be at full strength this time and the weather forecast predicts winds of a mere 23 kmh. Secondly, the Saints went into last year’s match with a genuine chance of making finals; this year, they’re out. Thirdly, the ball movement statistics for both sides have veered in opposite directions.

They like to move it move it

In the win against Sydney, Brisbane recorded 300 disposals and 200 effective disposals for the first time ever.

Most Disposals in an AFLW match for Brisbane Lions

Most Effective Disposals in an AFLW match for Brisbane Lions

Those figures did not rely on one or two players. Sophie Conway had the most disposals with 25 (18 effective), but 16 players reached double-figures and no player had fewer than six disposals.

The other main stat categories broke no records but were just as spread: the 60 tackles were made by 19 different players; 39 inside-50s by 17 players; 67 turnovers also by 17 players. The umpires did not draw the names out of a hat to decide the votes for the ‘Charlotte Brownlow Medal’, but it would have been understandable if they had.

Kick, push, kick, push, coast

Meanwhile, the Saints downturn in results has coincided with a significant change in how they move the ball. In 2023, the Saints kick-to-handball ratio was 1.78, slightly higher than the competition average. This year, the figure rose marginally to 1.88 as Euro-Yroke won three of their first four matches, but after the 57-point loss to Hawthorn in Round 4, the team went full ‘Barassi to Bartlett’ (ask your grandparents) kicking 2.3 times for every handball. Playing this way, the Saints have won one from six.

To be fair, those five losses have been by margins of 11, 4, 14, 15 and 1; their 34-point victory over GWS is only 11 points shy of matching that combined margin. There may be an alternate universe in which Euro-Yroke found ways to win those matches and is now challenging Brisbane for a top four spot. In this universe, it doesn’t appear to have worked.

Across 2024, Euro-Yroke averages 34.8 disposals a match fewer than its opponents. Coincidentally, Brisbane averages 34.8 disposals a match more than its opponents. Awww, it’s like they’re made for each other.

Somebody that I used to know

In any match between the Lions and Saints, the pachyderm in the chamber is Jesse Wardlaw. Last year, Wardlaw came into the match against Brisbane having scored in only two of her previous five matches and taken at least one inside-50 mark in only two of her previous five matches. On the day, she produced two goals and two forward-50 marks.

Well, guess what? Coming into this match, Wardlaw’s record is identical.

One could look at stats that show a quarter of Wardlaw’s 16 marks inside forward 50 came in the opening round win over Gold Coast, or that in recent weeks, Wardlaw has been dropping so deep that she has recorded her first rebound-50s of the year, but whatever numbers you point to, it won’t matter against the Lions. It just won’t.

I’ve got the key, I’ve got the secret

Quality key defenders can keep their team in games for longer than might be expected. That effect is increased if they have a little inside knowledge on the opposition. Paige Trudgeon and Serene Watson have been, with midfielder Tyanna Smith, the outstanding performers for Euro-Yroke in 2024. Trudgeon is ranked fifth for both spoils and one-percenters while Watson is in the top ten for intercept possessions and second for rebound 50s. St Kilda concedes 35.3 inside-50s a match, but only 34% of their opponents’ forward-50 entries are effective. The main reasons for that are Trudgeon and Watson.

While Watson could play as a loose defender, there is a good chance that she will line up on her former Bond University Bull Sharks teammate Taylor Smith. Both have developed significantly since their last match together, a QAFLW Grand Final loss in 2021, but any insight into your opposition has to help. To be fair, that works both ways and it will be interesting to see how Smith tries to break free of Watson, Trudgeon, Stevens and co.

She comes in nightmare colours

In 2023, Brisbane only lost to teams that wore a significant amount of black (Richmond, Collingwood, St Kilda). In 2024, the only losses have come to blue and white teams (Kangaroos and Geelong). Quite clearly, you can forget the statistics, you can forget the tactics, the only thing that can stop the Lions from beating Euro-Yroke is if the Saints make a radical colour change to their jersey.