The vengeance theme is strong with this one. The 2024 AFLW Grand Final gives the Kangaroos an opportunity to avenge their loss in last year’s decider, and the Lions theirs at Brighton Homes Arena three months ago. Theories about how Grand Finals are won abound. Referring to “winning big moments” is an old favourite. However, AFLW history suggests that the moments that need to be won to take home the flag are much smaller.

Last Time They Met

Brisbane fans can gain nothing by avoiding this: North Melbourne smashed us. The Lions’ largest ever loss, highest score conceded, most tackles inside 50 conceded (since broken by Gold Coast). Ash Riddell, Jasmine Garner and Tahlia Randall did pretty much whatever they wanted. Ally Anderson broke the Lions’ all-time match record for clearances with 15 but was continually picked off by the Kangaroos’ halfbacks. If Brisbane manages to win the Grand Final, the next documentary about the Lions will segue from the joy and energy of pre-season training straight into slow motion black-and-white footage of this match accompanied by minor key orchestral music.

The Statistic That Wins Grand Finals

The Team Stats tab on the Match Centre of every AFLW match records statistics in 26 categories, 32 if you really know what you’re doing. In a Grand Final, there is only one you need to watch.

In the seven Grand Finals to date, the winner has only finished ahead in the disposals, uncontested possessions, inside-50s and marks inside 50 three times each. Winners have won the tackle count only twice (it was Brisbane both times) and had more marks only twice. Winning the effective disposals or disposal efficiency has produced four wins, likewise for clearances, contested possessions, contested marks, hit-outs and bounces. Having a greater number of effective inside-50s has got five teams over the line, which is the same number of wins for teams that have kicked more goals. That’s right - goals!

The only stat that has been won by every Grand Final winner is… one percenters.

For the uninitiated, a one-percenter is any bump, block, chase, knock, smother or shepherd that benefits the player’s team without gaining anything for themself. Just under half of all AFLW games and only 44% this season have been won by the team that finished ahead in the one-percenter (OP) count, but for Grand Finals, it’s 100%. In the biggest game, effort matters.

Which Team Produces More One-Percenters?

There’s not that much difference between how many one-percenters the Lions and Kangaroos make per match. Across 2024, the Lions have averaged 26.9 to the Kangaroos 26.6. Since Round 8, which is when compressed fixtures ended, both teams have increased their numbers with North shading Brisbane 29 to 28.8.

Where Brisbane has the advantage is in preventing opponents from making effective OPs. Since Round 8, the Lions have conceded 24.6 OPs per match compared with the Roos’ 26.8. Significantly, Brisbane has finished well ahead in the one-percenters in both of its finals matches (38-26 over Hawthorn and 35-29 against Adelaide) whereas North Melbourne has finished behind in both of theirs (30-34 versus the Crows and 24-25 to Port).

However, you remember that match back in Round 1 where North smashed Brisbane? The OPs were won 19-17 by the Kangas.

The Kangaroos’ One-Percenter Champions

North’s three top players for one-percenters in 2024 have been defender Sarah Wright (48) and rucks Kim Rennie (32) and Emma King (30). Given that Rennie and King are often interchanged for each other through the match, it could be argued that the Kangaroos have one überruck that applies pressure across the match without ever tiring.

Sarah Wright was always going to put serious pressure on Brisbane’s forwards, even if she hadn’t been ignored by the All-Australian selectors last Monday. Wright has the most career OPs for the Kangaroos with 207, five of which were in the Round 1 win at Springfield, the most of anyone on the ground that day. Wright, however, may not be the biggest danger for Brisbane in the Roos’ backline.

The AFLW all-time one-percenter leader is Libby Birch with 297. Second-placed Sarah Allan of Adelaide is a whopping 42 behind her. When the Western Bulldogs beat Brisbane in the 2018 Grand Final, Birch had the most OPs of anyone with 7. When Melbourne beat Brisbane in the season 7 decider, Birch had the second most OPs of anyone with 6 (Tahlia Gillard had 9). Birch produces large numbers of little moments in big games - especially against Brisbane.

The Lions’ One-Percenter Champions

If the Lions get up on Saturday night, Jennifer Dunne could become the most popular woman in Brisbane. Her 58 OPs this year are a Lions season record and triple her tally from 2023. When you see a maroon jersey running out of defence, have a look to see where Dunne is. Chances are she’ll either be holding an opponent away from her teammate or sprawled at the bottom of a pile-up having just knocked the ball into space.

Incidentally, the player whose season record Dunne broke announced her retirement this week. Kate Lutkins registered 48 OPs in Brisbane’s first premiership year of 2021. That’s causation, not a coincidence.

The next three highest OP accumulators for the Lions this year are Tahlia Hickie (37), Dakota Davidson and Belle Dawes (both with 24). Look at that again closely. Brisbane’s top four for selfless actions includes a defender (Dunne), a ruck (Hickie), a forward (Davidson) and an on-baller (Dawes). That’s not typical. Most clubs’ top fours for OPs contain three defenders and a ruck. Brisbane is the only team who’s top four for one-percenters in 2024 contains players in four different positions. Across the whole of the field, no team’s players have done more work for each other than the Lions.

Possible Milestones

Sticking with the one-percenter theme, Bre Koenen will begin the Granny with 97 career OPs; she would become the fifth Lions to reach the ton after Shannon Campbell (219), Tahlia Hickie (154), Kate Lutkins (141) and Nat Grider (134).

Last week, Belle Dawes became the third Lion to reach 1000 disposals. Koenen needs four to become the fourth.

Charlie Mullins has been averaging 12.8 disposals this year. She needs 12 at IKON Park to reach 300 in her 27th match.

Eleanor Hartill has 90 disposals this year in 12 matches. She might hit the century on Saturday but might prefer to know that Roos forward Tahlia Randall made 96 disposals in 16 matches for the Lions back in 2017-18. Hartill getting to 97 and then giving Randall a quick sledge on the way past may just qualify as a one-percenter.

Neither Taylor Smith nor Sophie Conway managed to bring up their 50th goal last week. Kicking the milestone major in a winning Grand Final or in the first home game of 2025 are both viable options.