LAST TIME: Hawthorn 16.9 (105) d Brisbane Lions 9.9 (63), Round 16, 2011 at Aurora Stadium
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Hawthorn has won five of its past six matches and will start this clash strong favourites as it seeks to continue its climb towards the top four. The Lions will be well rested, having enjoyed their mid-season bye last weekend. The stirring round 10 win over West Coast should also be fresh in their minds, giving them confidence of pulling off another upset.
THE FOUR POINTS?
Hawthorn?
1. The Hawks haven't played the Lions at the MCG since 2007, with recent home games against Michael Voss' men staged in Launceston. Hawthorn has won five of its past six games against the Lions, two of those by more than 60 points.
2. Experienced midfielder Brad Sewell is in super form for the Hawks, following his shutdown job on North Melbourne captain Andrew Swallow in round 10 with a best afield display in the 46-point win over Port Adelaide on Sunday. Sewell's 33 disposals included eight clearances and eight inside 50s as he charged out of stoppages at will. The Lions will need to find a way to counter him.
3. Cyril Rioli's performance against the Power was described in some quarters as quiet, for he collected only 13 disposals and didn't kick a goal. But Rioli's defensive game was one of the best seen in the AFL this season. He laid an amazing 14 tackles, and amassed 33 pressure acts. It was a display that would have rated very highly within the walls of Waverley Park, but Michael Voss and his men will have noticed too.
4. Lance Franklin needs 11 goals to join Jason Dunstall, Leigh Matthews, Peter Hudson and Michael Moncrieff in Hawthorn's 500-goal club. The Coleman Medal favourite has been in electric form over the past fortnight, booting 13 goals against North Melbourne and four against Port Adelaide. If he gets on a roll early, a haul of 11 might not be out of the question.
Brisbane Lions
1. Voss said he expected the last-start win against West Coast to be a turning point for the Lions and not something to hang their hat on. They get a perfect chance to show the competition whether the Eagles victory was an aberration, or something more, against Hawthorn. They have won just one of their past nine matches at the MCG.
2. Every team has the same headache when they play the Hawks - who gets Franklin? For the Lions the answer should be simple - Matt Maguire. 'Goose' has been outstanding in 2012 and has the strength and defensive mindset to match the white-hot Franklin. Maguire might not have the same aerobic capacity, but the Lions won't mind one little bit if Franklin roams up the ground to get his touches.
3. The Lions will regain the services of Brownlow medallist Simon Black after he missed one match with a knee injury. Against the Eagles, Daniel Rich, Jack Redden, Andrew Raines and Tom Rockliff took on extra responsibility around the stoppages, winning 20 clearances between them. Black is one of the competition's clearance experts, but his midfield mates must continue to find their own ball even in his return.
4. In Josh Green and Dayne Zorko, the Lions appear to have found a perfect combination to replace the injured Todd Banfield. Zorko's forward pressure has been brilliant, making 24 tackles in the past three matches, while Green's three-goal cameo as the sub against West Coast was the front-half spark the Lions had hoped for. Stifling the Hawks' run and precision from the back half is a must-do for Voss' men.
AFL.com.au prediction: Hawthorn by 36 points
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL
