According to AFL tipsters and betting agencies, the result of Saturday evening’s Round One clash between the Brisbane Lions and Hawthorn in Launceston is a foregone conclusion.
The Lions have been labelled a “basket case” by some media experts and have not rated a mention when discussing potential top eight candidates.
Meanwhile, Hawthorn have enjoyed a faultless pre-season following on from a dominant 2013 campaign which concluded with them winning their 11th VFL/AFL premiership.
It’s no surprise to see the Hawks listed as competition favourites to win back-to-back titles, while the Lions are currently on the third last line of betting ahead of only Melbourne and St Kilda.
Combine that with the fact that the Hawks handed the Lions a 131-point pre-season drubbing at Etihad Stadium last month, and logic would tell you that the reigning premiers should be a safe bet come Saturday.
But logic does not always prevail in a two-horse race.
You only have to look as far back as last Saturday for evidence.
Greater Western Sydney were given no chance of upsetting their more established neighbours the Sydney Swans, yet surprised the football world by producing an historic win, by 32 points, at Spotless Stadium.
The Lions themselves have had a habit of causing major upsets recently when their backs are against the wall.
In fact, their recent record against the top couple of teams in the AFL would rival most clubs.
Over the past two seasons, a remarkable 20% of the Lions’ total wins have come against sides who sat either first or second on the ladder at the time of their meeting.
In Round 10 of 2012, the Lions hosted West Coast at the Gabba in a match most predicted was a ‘fait accompli’.
The Eagles sat on top of the AFL ladder having dropped just one of their opening nine matches of the season, while the Lions languished in 14th position with just three wins.
But some last quarter heroics from Josh Green, Niall McKeever and James Polkinghorne helped the home side secure one of the upsets of the season.
Such upsets generally happen only once in a blue moon, however the Lions did it again just three months later – this time the victim was Adelaide.
The Crows headed to the Gabba in Round 21 with just percentage separating them from the first-placed Sydney Swans on the AFL ladder.
And with the potential for home ground advantage throughout the Finals series as an extra incentive, most expected the visitors to comfortably dispose of the 13th-placed Lions. Some even suggested that a percentage boost might be on the cards.
But the Lions once again failed to prescribe to the public perceptions, and instead stunned the Crows with a come-from-behind 10-point victory.
It wasn’t just at home that the Lions proved that they could mix it with the ‘big boys’, with a hard-fought win over a seemingly ‘unbeatable’ Essendon outfit at Etihad Stadium in Round 8 of 2013.
The Bombers headed into the match with just one loss from their first seven games of the season, while the Lions were in 15th.
Worse still was the Lions’ record for matches played in Melbourne was unconvincing to say the least.
But against all odds, the visitors prevailed by 10 points.
And who could forget the ‘Miracle on Grass’ in Round 13 of last year against Geelong – then placed second on the ladder with just one loss from their first 12 games.
The Cats even led by as much as 52 points late in the third quarter, but even that wasn’t enough for the 15th-placed Lions to further enhance their tag as ‘giant killers’ by producing the greatest comeback in the Club’s history to claim an after-the-siren victory.
These four instances might count for nought in 2014 but, if nothing else, it proves that lightning can strike more than once.
And there’s no reason it can’t happen again at Aurora Stadium this Saturday.
So let the haters hate and the experts continue writing the Club off – as it is of little concern to those within the four walls of the Gabba.
The Lions are becoming used to being branded ‘underdogs’, and welcome the tag as they approach their match against an unbackable Hawthorn.
And what better challenge for a team than to face the competition’s absolute best, on a day when they unfurl the premiership flag in front of their Tasmanian faithful.
A habit of upsets
The Lions have been the cause of some major upsets in recent times