The 41-point victory over the Kangaroos at the weekend moved them to 11-6 and on the cusp of their first finals appearance since 2004.
The tricky run home starts with the Magpies, followed by Essendon (away), Western Bulldogs (home), Port Adelaide (home) and the Sydney Swans (away).
While coach Michael Voss has preached the necessity for 12 wins to nail down a finals spot, in all likelihood the Lions already have the number to sneak in and can now set their sights higher.
There is some serious congestion behind runaway leaders St Kilda and Geelong, with the Bulldogs, Collingwood, Adelaide and the Lions only separated by percentage in the race for the top-four and the double chance.
In superstar Simon Black’s 250th game this weekend, the Lions are likely to face the Magpies without veteran Tim Notting (facing one-week ban for striking), and full forward Daniel Bradshaw (hamstring).
Black has a great record against Collingwood, winning the Norm Smith Medal in the Lions’ 2003 Grand Final victory, and earning three Brownlow Medal votes in his 200th game against the same opponent in 2007.
Forward Scout:
The club: Collingwood
2009 to date: After an indifferent start, the Pies have clicked. Other than an out-of-character performance against Hawthorn two rounds ago, Collingwood has been spotless in the last eight weeks and moved into fourth place. This has directly coincided with Alan Didak’s move to the middle of the ground. With the return of Scott Pendlebury from a knee problem, the Magpies now have a midfield able to rival most in the competition, while captain Nick Maxwell has led an impressive defence.
The coach: Mick Malthouse is the longest serving coach in the AFL and will continue for another two years after re-signing with the club. Malthouse and his team have kept focussed in recent weeks and moved into premiership contention. His move to make Nick Maxwell the club captain has been a masterstroke, with the defender’s game going to the next level. Malthouse has also watched the careers of Didak and Leon Davis blossom by giving them more time in the middle of the ground. Still one of the best football brains in the business.
The gun: Despite being the competition’s highest possession winner, Dane Swan is still arguably the AFL’s most underrated player. He is the classic ball magnet and often seems to have no opponent. Swan is incredibly consistent and only twice this season (including a low of 19 touches against the Lions) has he gathered less than 28 disposals. The 25-year-old gets his touches in all areas of the ground, and has kicked at least one goal in his last eight games, showing his willingness to run into the forward 50. The 2008 Copeland Trophy winner can hurt you with his disposal and is a key to the Magpies’ success.
The sleeper: Once seen as just a livewire forward who carried around the dreaded ‘enigma’ label, Leon Davis has turned himself into a genuine A-grade midfielder. Last season was a breakthrough year for the slippery 176-gamer, but spending more time in the middle of the ground in 2009 has only helped his game. He has clean hands, exquisite skills and with 27 goals is capable of hurting the opposition on the scoreboard with his freakish goal-sense. His 22 disposals a game are usually of the highest quality.
The bolter: Dayne Beams. The boy from Southport has made a terrific impression in his debut season at Collingwood. Beams has played 11 games so far, including the last five, and has solidified his spot in the midfield rotation. In the last five weeks he has kicked eight goals and averaged 21 touches a game.
Strengths: Collingwood’s strength is their evenness across the ground. They have a big midfield rotation with quality ball users like Swan, Davis, Didak and Pendlebury. These guys all kick goals, and along with Dale Thomas and Paul Medhurst, can create match-up problems when going into the forward line. Collingwood's defence is stable, with Maxwell and Heath Shaw both keen to run off and create.
Weaknesses: The area that looks most vulnerable for Collingwood, as shown by Hawthorn, is its spine. While John Anthony has been a good target up front, his consistency is questionable (four goals in last four weeks), which puts pressure on the smaller brigade to kick goals. At the other end, the Magpies are great at creating the loose man and playing off their opponent, but can be vulnerable one-on-one if the opposition can keep all the players accountable.
The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
