Star forward Jonathan Brown is confident the Brisbane Lions can turn the tables on NAB Cup nemesis Carlton on Saturday night at Docklands and is backing himself to bounce back to his goalkicking best.

The Lions have made two changes to the side which lost to the Kangaroos by 24 points at Carrara last weekend, recalling Beau McDonald and Marcus Allan to replace Cameron Wood and Matthew Moody.

The Blues accounted for the Lions by 25 points in the pre-season cup final five weeks ago but co-captain Brown says his side's performance that night was better than the final score indicates.

"To be honest, I reckon they only had our measure for about 20 minutes in the third quarter of that game, and Nick Stevens had a fair bit to do with that. It's a positive for us that he is out," Brown said.

"We've probably been a bit disappointing the last couple of weeks. We played pretty well against Sydney and lost and then last week we were reasonable, but the Roos were more desperate than us. There have been some good signs in all four of our games and we haven't been flogged in either of our losses.

"We're pretty confident we'll win more than we lose this year."

Brown is also confident of regaining his accuracy in front of goal, after kicking five behinds before he finally registered a major against the Kangaroos.

"I just had a bad night," Brown explained.

"I think if you include the NAB Cup I'd kicked 12.0 going in and the other day at training I reckoned I could almost have kicked them blindfolded. It was just an off night, which everyone has. I've got a good kicking action and the worst thing you can do after a night like that is keep thinking about it."

For the fourth week in a row the Lions were unable to bring in cork victim Nigel Lappin, while Carlton has drafted in elevated rookie Ryan Jackson to take the place of Brad Fisher, who has a broken cheekbone. Fisher kicked four goals, including a nine-point supergoal, against the Lions in the NAB Cup decider.

Sam Sheldon, who was eligible to be taken by Carlton as a father-son selection in last year's AFL National Draft, has been named among the emergencies for the Lions.

Teams:

BRISBANE

B: Chris Johnson, Daniel Merrett, Jason Roe
HB: Jed Adcock, Jared Brennan, Robert Copeland
C: Justin Sherman, Ben Fixter, Cheynee Stiller
HF: Scott Harding, Jonathan Brown, Tim Notting
F: Michael Rischitelli, Joel Patfull, Ashley McGrath
FOLL: Jamie Charman, Simon Black, Luke Power
I/C: Richard Hadley, Colm Begley, Beau McDonald, Marcus Allan
EMG: Cameron Wood, Matthew Moody, Sam Sheldon

CARLTON

B: Bryce Gibbs, Setanta O’hAilpin, Bret Thornton
HB: Heath Scotland, Lance Whitnall, Ryan Houlihan
C: Jarrad Waite, Adam Bentick, Andrew Walker
HF: Simon Wiggins, Cameron Cloke, Andrew Carrazzo
F: Josh Kennedy, Brendan Fevola, Matthew Lappin
FOLL: Cain Ackland, Marc Murphy, Kade Simpson
I/C: Joe Anderson, Eddie Betts, Ryan Jackson, Jordan Russell
EMG: Luke Blackwell, Paul Bower, Adam Hartlett

ON THE PUNT (UNiTAB)

It would appear punters aren't too sure about this game, with the Lions favourites at $1.85 but Carlton also being kept safe at $1.88. Margins of 40 or less points for either team appear to be the popular elect - both are paying $2.40. Lions fans who fancy their side to dish out a footballing lesson to the Blues can get $6.50 for a Lions win by 40 or more points. A Lions win by 40-59 points is paying $10.

At $6, Brown is favourite to emerge as the competition's leading goal-kicker for round five, despite not splitting the big sticks until the final quarter in last week's loss to the Roos. Brown is still fourth in the Coleman Medal market at $9 and equal sixth (alongside teammate Simon Black) in Brownlow betting on $21, while wooden spoon wagering has a new favourite, with Richmond only just in black figures at $2 even. At the other end of the spectrum, the West Coast Eagles are $3.60 fancies to make it back-to-back flags.

KEY MATCH-UPS

Daniel Merrett (Lions) v Brendan Fevola (Carlton)
Merrett gets a second crack for the year at the Coleman Medal favourite, and the emerging Lions backman will be keen to continue his most impressive start to the season. History will record that Fevola kicked four goals and that Carlton won the match by 25 points when the Blues and Lions met in the pre-season NAB Cup final. But statistics rarely tell the full story and Fevola's goals were more about a good flow of supply into Carlton's forward line and a bit of luck than anything else. All but the most ardent Blues and Fevola fans would admit that honours were probably even that night - and a repeat or slightly better performance by Merrett on Saturday night could prove decisive. Fevola was held goalless by West Coat's Darren Glass last week.

Jamie Charman and Beau McDonald (Lions) v Cain Ackland (Carlton)
For the second week in a row an opponent will take only the one recognised ruckman into a game against the Lions and it will be up to Charman and the recalled McDonald to make them regret their decision. Last Saturday at Carrara, young big man Hamish McIntosh contributed strongly to the Kangaroos' surprise win. But Charman was playing his first game of the season following achilles trouble and will be significantly better for the run. McDonald, meanwhile, returns after being omitted last week and will look to pick up where he left off versus Sydney in round three, when his tapwork was most encouraging. At 196cm and 100kg, Ackland will concede height and weight to both Charman and McDonald.

Simon Black (Lions) v Marc Murphy (Carlton)
Teams so rarely line up as named that it's probably pie in the sky stuff to ponder this match-up. Then again, who wouldn't be fascinated by a potential showdown between 2002 Brownlow Medallist Black and Murphy, a young player so promising that the game's highest individual honour might well become a part of his future? Added spice comes from the fact that the two could actually have been playing next to each other in the Lions midfield, had Murphy opted to move to the Gabba under the father-son rule. Both are expert ball-winners with Black holding the edge in experience and vision and Murphy probably boasting the better athleticism and natural instinct for goal.

ODDS & SODS

***Since 2000, the Lions have had only three top-10 draft selections - Jared Brennan at No.3 in 2002, Mitchell Clark at No.9 in 2005 and Matthew Leuenberger at No.4 in 2006. The Blues have had six, including back to back No.1 picks in Marc Murphy and Bryce Gibbs. Carlton would have had even more early picks had they not received draft penalties in 2002 and 2003 for salary cap breaches.

***The current five-game winning streak against Carlton is the longest the Lions hold against any club. The Lions have not lost to the Blues since round eight, 2001, when a 74-point Carlton win is widely credited with helping provide the spark that turned around the Lions' first premiership season.

***Talk about mixed fortunes. In round 16, 2000, the Lions kicked their highest third-term total ever of 11.0 against Carlton. Later that year, the Lions suffered their biggest ever finals loss, being bundled out by the Blues by 82 points at the MCG.

***Carlton may have claimed a second wooden spoon in 2006 but it did manage one feat that no other team could match. Carlton was the only side in the competition to kick its highest score of the year in a loss. For the record, it came in round 21, when the Blues registered 17.10 (112) and went down to Collingwood by 44 points. Denis Pagan's side kicked 100-plus points five times last year but only emerged with points twice, knocking off Essendon in round seven and then drawing with the Bombers in round 16.

***There is a very fine statistical line between winning and losing, but it's a lot more accentuated when you are analysing defensive records. The Lions won seven games in 2006, compared to Carlton's three. But very little separates either club's offensive output - the Lions averaged 83 points for, narrowly ahead of the 81 points-per-game posted by the Blues. At the other end of the ground, however, the Blues conceded 109 points on average, as opposed to the Lions' comparatively miserly 101.

***Michael Rischitelli’s 10 tackles against the Kangaroos last Saturday night has him placed third in the AFL for total tackles (26). Only Sydney’s Brett Kirk (29) and the Kangaroos’ Daniel Harris (28) have laid more tackles than the 21-year-old. Teammate Ben Fixter is ranked equal fifth with 22.

LAST TIME THEY MET

The Lions prevailed by 15 points in a scrappy affair at the Gabba, 8.23 (71) to 7.14 (56). It was the Lions’ second least accurate goalkicking display ever, at just 25.8%. Cheynee Stiller was arguably the Lions’ best player with 28 possessions and the sealing goal and picked up a Rising Star nomination in just his fourth senior game. Simon Black, Justin Sherman and Michael Rischitelli were also prominent in the midfield.

BROADCAST DETAILS

TV:
QLD: 7:00pm LIVE on Network Ten and Fox Sports
VIC: 7:00pm LIVE on Fox Sports

Radio:
QLD: 7:00pm LIVE on Triple M Radio (104.5FM); 6:30pm LIVE on NIRS (98.9FM)