Second Qualifying Final
Port Adelaide (2nd) v West Coast (3rd)
Friday, 7.50pm CST, AAMI Stadium
UNiTAB market: Port Adelaide $1.70, West Coast $2.12
Head to Head: Round 15, Port by 91 points.
Match-up to watch: Kane Cornes (Power) v Ben Cousins (Eagles) With Chris Judd battling for full fitness and Daniel Kerr out until grand final week, Cousins seems set to draw Cornes – arguably the league’s best tagger. It promises to be an enthralling battle with Cousins an irrepressible runner and Cornes a possession-winner as well as a stopper.
The breakdown: The Power have done a great job to bounce back into the upper reaches of the eight, having finished 12th in 2006. But it seems unlikely Port will have things its own way in the manner in which it did at AAMI Stadium in round 15 when Mark Williams’ charges emerged 91-point winners. Few doubt the Eagles are much better than that and, even with an underdone Judd and an absent Kerr, John Worsfold’s side is still primed to have a big impact on the finals.
First Elimination Final
Hawthorn (5th) v Adelaide (8th)
Saturday, 2.30pm EST, Docklands
UNiTAB market: Adelaide $1.60, Hawthorn $2.25
Head to Head: Round 14, Adelaide by 71 points.
Match-up to watch: Lance Franklin (Hawthorn) v Ben Rutten (Adelaide) It seems odd to think that Adelaide could have a potential match-up problem at full-back, when All-Australian Rutten is its custodian. But Franklin is such a superb athlete for his 196cm, 99kg frame that matters may well pan out that way. If “Buddy” can kick a bag, the Hawks could be in the box seat.
The breakdown: Hawthorn’s form has tapered off decidedly in the second half of the year and it reached a season low against Sydney last week when the Swans outscored the Hawks 14 goals to three up to half-time. By contrast, Adelaide enters the finals series with momentum, having won four of its past five games. Going on their previous meeting in 2007, when Adelaide won comprehensively, the Crows deserve to start favourites.
Second Elimination Final
Collingwood (6th) v Sydney (7th)
Saturday, 7.30pm (EST), MCG
UNiTAB market: Sydney $1.70, Collingwood $2.10
Head to Head: Round 12, Collingwood by 19 points; Round 21, Collingwood by 25 points.
Match-up to watch: Guy Richards (Collingwood) v Darren Jolly (Sydney) Collingwood has regained Josh Fraser for this do-or-die clash but it might be the efforts of second-stringer Richards (who is actually named to start in the ruck) that prove decisive. The Swans pairing of Jolly and Peter Everitt is close to the best big man tandem in the league and Richards will need to have an impact.
The breakdown: Collingwood has beaten the Swans comfortably in their two meetings in 2007 but it is Sydney which is a firm favourite – despite the game being played in Melbourne. This is most likely a nod to a number of factors – the thought that Collingwood remains vulnerable in September (a first-round loss to the Bulldogs a year ago), Sydney’s enormous finals experience and their demolition of Hawthorn a week ago. Paul Roos’ side led by 71 points at half-time in that match and kicked 14 goals in the first half.
First Qualifying Final
Geelong (1st) v Kangaroos (4th)
Sunday, 2.45pm EST, MCG
UNiTAB market: Geelong $1.23, Kangaroos $3.85
Head to Head: Round 5, Kangaroos by 16 points; Round 20, Geelong by 27 points.
Match-up to watch: Cameron Mooney (Geelong) v Michael Firrito (Firrito): Mooney has kicked 55 goals for the season and is vitally important to Geelong’s set-up and structure. Firrito, meanwhile, is one of the craftiest key defenders going around. The outcome of their match-up could go a long way towards deciding the outcome of this match.
The breakdown: The betting odds reflect the fact that Geelong won 18 of its 22 home-and-away matches, including 16 of its final 17 outings. No-one could possibly dispute that the Cats deserve to start favourites especially after they beat the Kangaroos by 27 points in round 20. But there is no doubting the Roos are way over the odds at $3.85. Before Port Adelaide got up to defeat Geelong with the last kick of the day in round 21, the Roos had been the last team to beat Mark Thompson’s side – having done so at the notoriously hostile Kardinia Park in round 5.
