Results from round 14 ensured the Lions remained two wins outside the eight after their 55-point loss to Carlton.
With eight rounds remaining, and a minimum six wins required to make the finals - and possibly seven - it’s now or never for Michael Voss' men.
While Brendan Fevola is a chance of returning from injury, the home side will go into the match with largely the same outfit that coughed up an early lead to the Blues.
They play a St Kilda team fresh from demolishing Melbourne and seemingly revelling in proving people wrong about its reliance on injured skipper Nick Riewoldt.
Without their high-marking captain, the Saints have marched to the top of the competition on the back of six straight wins and their defence is back to its stingy best.
The bad news for the Lions is that Riewoldt is a chance to make his return from a serious hamstring injury on Saturday night.
The teams played just once last season, with the Lions leading into the last quarter at Etihad Stadium against an unbeaten Saints before going down by 16 points.
Forward scout: St Kilda
2010 to date
After going within two kicks of winning the 2009 premiership, big things were expected of St Kilda for this season’s campaign. They started strongly but when Riewoldt went down in round three with a serious hamstring injury, the alarm bells were sounding. This became even more apparent when they lost three matches in four weeks against Port Adelaide, Carlton and Essendon and struggled to kick goals.
But since a round-nine win over West Coast, the Saints have not looked back, winning six straight and conceding a miserly 61 points per game. Recent success against Fremantle and Geelong and the impending return of Riewoldt again have them as a strong premiership fancy.
The coach
It took some time, but Ross Lyon has eventually built a list the envy of many senior coaches. He took over from Grant Thomas at the start of the 2007 season and has climbed steadily ever since.
While Riewoldt, Lenny Hayes, Nick Dal Santo and Brendon Goddard were stars prior to his tenure, Lyon has fostered the rise of players like Leigh Montagna, Sam Fisher, Sam Gilbert and Clinton Jones.
They reached a preliminary final in 2008, the grand final in 2009 and Lyon is desperate to take them one rung higher in 2010.
The gun
Lenny Hayes is undoubtedly the heart and soul of St Kilda. Tough as nails in the middle of the ground, he has the ability to will his team over the line. Hayes loves to throw his body into a contest, win the ball and fire out handballs to a litany of runners.
When he has time, the Saints skipper loves to throw a baulk and can create with both hand and foot. His effort embodies the style of game St Kilda employ - tough and uncompromising. Every team would love a Lenny Hayes.
The sleeper
He’s been around for more than 200 games now, but Stephen Milne never ceases to amaze. The little goalsneak plays arguably the toughest position on the ground and is having another stellar year.
He has 35 goals in 14 games to again be on pace to crack 50 for the season. If the ball is on the ground in the forward 50, watch out, because if Milne gets his mitts on it, there's every chance a goal will ensue.
The bolter
Just like a couple of this year’s drafting success stories, Clinton Jones was a late bloomer. The blond tagger played his first game in the seniors as a 23-year-old and has now chalked up 64 games.
He has an incredible running capacity and is one of the best run-with players going around. Jones is also prepared to run off and get his own ball. Chances are Simon Black will be in for a tough night if Jones gets the nod from Lyon to chase the Brownlow Medallist around.
Strengths
The Saints' trademark over the past two seasons has been their pressure at the contest. They converge in numbers and simply out-work most opponents. While they concede very few points in defence - only Carlton has topped 100 against them through 14 rounds - it is the pressure all over the ground that limits the opponent.
It’s a predictable mantra, but to beat the Saints you simply have to work harder or they will dominate possessions and dominate the scoreboard.
Weaknesses
While the Saints love to dominate the midfield and squeeze the life out of their opponents, they can still have scoring droughts without Riewoldt up front, They have topped the ton just four times this year and rely heavily on small forwards Milne (35) and Adam Schneider (23) to kick goals.
Other than that, their scoring power comes from the midfield. If Riewoldt fails to play on Saturday night and the Lions' small defenders can put the clamps on, they will go a long way to not only staying in the match, but possibly causing an upset.
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
