LAST TIME: Geelong 20.13 (133) d Brisbane Lions 15.14 (104), round 17, 2011, at The Gabba
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Both teams come into this match with a 2-2 record and fresh from wins against lowly opposition. The Lions took care of Gold Coast with major contributions from veterans Simon Black and Jonathan Brown and young guns Tom Rockliff and Aaron Cornelius. The Cats have wobbled through the first month of their premiership defence but kept their heads above water with a narrow win over Richmond last week. It was the corresponding match last year that saw Lions captain Brown suffer his second horrific facial fracture in four months following a sickening collision with Mitch Clark and Harry Taylor.
THE FOUR POINTS
BRISBANE LIONS
1. The Lions have started the season well but need a good performance against a credible opponent to give themselves some legitimacy. They've beaten Gold Coast and Melbourne but were thumped by premiership fancies Carlton and despite being competitive against Fremantle, were never really a chance of winning. A strong showing here can show the competition they are serious about climbing the ladder.
2. Aaron Cornelius showed a glimpse of his enormous talent with four goals against Gold Coast last week. He has arguably the best set of hands at the Lions but has struggled to cement a regular position during his four seasons. He looks fitter and his work-rate against the Suns would have pleased coach Michael Voss. Another strong showing against the Cats could lock the Tasmanian in as Jonathan Brown's forward line off-sider for the foreseeable future.
3. When the teams met at the Gabba last year, James Podsiadly tore the Lions - and more particularly Matt Maguire - apart, kicking eight goals. Maguire has been in ripping form early in the season and will be itching at a chance of redemption. The Lions must control him and Tom Hawkins to have a chance of upsetting the Cats.
4. The Lions' running defenders have been in great form this season and should again be a key. Ash McGrath (28 disposals), Mitch Golby (26), Pearce Hanley (25) and Josh Drummond (22) ran amok against the Suns. Their running power and accurate delivery has given the Lions an extra attacking spark in 2012.
GEELONG
1. The Cats desperately need to lift their hardness around the ball. Geelong has lost the contested possession count in all four of its matches this season. Last weekend, when the Cats defeated Richmond by 10 points at Simonds Stadium, the reigning premiers had 10 less contested possessions than the Tigers.
2. Steve Johnson is struggling to have his usual impact on games. Johnson gathered 21 possessions in the win over Richmond, but his skills were poor. In fact, so many of his possessions missed their target that by the end of the contest his disposal efficiency was a miserable 33 per cent. Johnson has also failed to hit the scoreboard this season - he has booted only four goals in four games.
3. Tom Lonergan has become one of Geelong's most valuable players in the past two seasons. Last weekend, he held Richmond's Jack Riewoldt to just one goal while also amassing 13 possessions and seven marks of his own. Look for Lonergan to be given the big job on Lions skipper Brown.
4. Second-year player Cameron Guthrie is quickly proving himself to be a capable sidekick to Lonergan in the backline. While Lonergan does the grunt work in the air and in the body-on-body contests, Guthrie is often at his feet, gathering the crumbs and dishing off accurate kicks and handballs. Guthrie picked up 18 possessions and laid five important tackles against the Tigers in round four.
AFL.com.au prediction: Geelong by 22 points
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL
