IN THE case of all four games, the two combatants have only met once so far in 2008 – adding further intrigue to what promises to be a most entertaining opening September weekend.
Second qualifying final: Hawthorn (2nd) v Western Bulldogs (3rd), MCG, 7.50pm Friday
TAB Sportsbet market: Hawthorn $1.33, Western Bulldogs $3.15
Head to head: Round 10, Bulldogs by 32 points.
Match-up to watch: Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin (Hawthorn) v Dale Morris (Bulldogs): with the 100-goal milestone for the season behind him, Franklin can relax and do what he does best – cause all kinds of problems for opposing defences. Buddy seemed to take a liking to September last year, making the smaller Morris’ task all the more challenging and much less envious.
The breakdown: The Bulldogs won the only clash between the two sides in the final week of May. But that was more than three months ago, and Rodney Eade’s side is not traveling nearly so well this time round. The Dogs go in having won only two of their last seven games, while the Hawks’ record over the same period is 4-3.
Prediction: The Bulldogs could be foxing but it appears more likely they are battling. Expect Hawthorn to advance directly to a preliminary final.
First elimination final: Adelaide (5th) v Collingwood (8th) Football Park, 2pm Saturday (Adelaide time)
TAB Sportsbet market: Adelaide $1.60, Collingwood $2.25
Head to head: Round 15, Collingwood by 32 points.
Match-up to watch: Nathan Bock (Adelaide) v Travis Cloke (Collingwood): a match-up likely to be pivotal to the contest and also entertaining to watch, with Cloke one of the league’s best young forwards and Bock a commanding presence at centre-half-back this year. Bock likes to get on his bike and create and had 28 possessions and five rebounds from the defensive 50m when the two sides last met.
The breakdown: Difficult to assess the form – Adelaide won five of its last six home-and-away games but had a round 21 blip against St Kilda, while the Pies had a three-game winning streak broken when they succumbed to Fremantle in Perth last Friday night. The loss of small forward Jason Porplyzia to shoulder problems could be costly for the Crows. Meanwhile, Collingwood will hope Paul Medhurst can fire at the other end – the former Freo player kicked 5.5 when the two sides met earlier in the year.
Prediction: Adelaide has the home ground advantage but the Pies generally do well on rare trips interstate and seem to find something extra with their backs to the wall. The Crows – but only just!
Second elimination final: Sydney Swans (6th) v North Melbourne (7th) at Homebush, 7.30pm Saturday
TAB Sportsbet market: Sydney $1.68, North Melbourne $2.10
Head to head: Round six - draw.
Match-up to watch: Kieren Jack (Sydney) v Brent Harvey (North Melbourne): Swans youngster Jack spent time on Harvey when the two sides met in round six and helped “keep” the Brownlow Medal fancy to 22 possessions, while having 13 of his own and laying five tackles. It seems fair to say that Harvey will enter this clash in stronger form, in a side that will be desperate to bounce back from last week’s shock 76-point loss to Port Adelaide
The breakdown: Two weeks ago, North Melbourne would have been the red hot favourite and the Sydney Swans the rank underdogs. But since then, the Roos have gone down to Geelong and the Power, while the Swans recovered from some ordinary displays to comfortably beat the Lions in round 22. Swans fans will warmly welcome back a couple of excellent players – gun half-forward Ryan O’Keefe and dual Brownlow medalist Adam Goodes.
Prediction: North Melbourne would win easily if it showed up with anything like the form it showed this time last month. Based on last week, that’s a big “if” but the price for a Roos win - $2.10 – still looks like good value.
First qualifying final: Geelong (1st) v St Kilda (4th) at the MCG, 2.40 Sunday
TAB Sportsbet market: Geelong $1.14, St Kilda $5.25
Head to head: Round four, Geelong by 42 points.
Match-up to watch: Andrew Mackie (Geelong) v Nick Riewoldt (St Kilda): If Mackie (or another Cat) can get a grip on Riewoldt, then St Kilda’s task of upsetting the reigning premier will be nigh on impossible. In the last three weeks, as the Saints grabbed an improbable top-four spot, Riewoldt was close to unstoppable, claiming 34 marks and booting 12 goals.
The breakdown: Geelong’s short price is justified – the Cats have won 21 of 22 games to date, with a percentage of more than 160. But if you use statistics to track the form teams of the competition, you’d probably have to say the Saints were second in line behind Geelong. Ross Lyon’s team has beaten Hawthorn, Adelaide and North Melbourne in winning eight of its last 10 games. .
Prediction: Statistical analysis might give St Kilda a show but the bigger question revolves around how much the Cats will win by – not whether they’ll win at all. Geelong to win by five goals or more.
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
