Mark Twain is famous for the popularisation of a saying that identifies three types of misleading information …. lies, damned lies and statistics.
Widely regarded as the father of American literature through the late 1800s, it is now 114 years since his passing but AFL number-crunchers might like to take exception to his cruel characterisation of what has become a huge part of the modern game.
Certainly interested will be those who earlier in the season were looking to find a reason why the Lions lost their first three home games after going unbeaten at home last season.
While southern ‘experts’, caught in an ongoing battle just to be heard, have offered an assortment of complex theories Chris Fagan has insisted that simple conversion in front of goal was the biggest single factor. And his is the only viewpoint that really matters,.
But if only to provide a little light relief from the heavy stuff, and provide a theory supported entirely by statistics, consider this …. perhaps it was as simple as the absence of Conor McKenna and Will Ashcroft.
Why? Because McKenna and Ashcroft are unbeaten at the Gabba in Lions colors.
Heading into Sunday’s 4.10pm home clash with Adelaide, McKenna is 17-0 in his #26 Brisbane jumper, and Ashcroft, looking forward to his second comeback game in #9 after an 11-month injury lay-off, is 10-0.
And when the Lions lost their first three Gabba games this year to Carlton, Collingwood and Geelong the club’s unofficial Gabba ‘lucky charms’ were missing.
Statistics on consecutive home wins from debut are not kept in the AFL, but an extended search through the record books confirms that if it was the current crop of Lions players would be prominent.
Excluding this group, the record among 348 Brisbane players over 37 years and 860 games is nine, shared by 2003 premiership pair Jamie Charman and Richard Hadley, and four-time Hawthorn flag-winner turned 2020-21 Lions import Grant Birchall.
Tom Berry, a 20-game Lion with a 15-5 record from 2022-22, won his first eight at the Gabba, but in an unlikely statistical oddity, only two other Brisbane players had more than five.
Daniel Bradshaw, a 2001-03 premiership hero, started his six Gabba wins in a row before a draw in his seventh home game, and Tom Collier, who played only 27 games for eight wins from 2008-11 but won his first six at the Gabba before losing his next seven.
McKenna, who was 1-1 at the Gabba before joining the Lions, having had a win over Brisbane in 2018 and a loss to St.Kilda during the Covid season of 2020, heads the Brisbane list at 17.
Darcy Wilmot (14) is next from Josh Dunkley (12), Jaxon Prior (11), Will Ashcroft (10) and Callum AhChee (10), with Noah Answerth (8), Jaspa Fletcher (8), Darcy Fort (6) and Deven Robertson (6) making up the top 16.
If you thought that was tough, what is the much tougher record for most consecutive wins overall from debut? And who holds it?
Clues? He was recruited with pick #9 in the 2000 Pre-Season Draft, played in the Lions’ 2001 NEAFL premiership on top of 46 AFL games in jumper #25 for the Lions from 2001-05, including the 2004 grand final.
Delisted after 17 games in 2005, he was picked up by Carlton and played 13 games in 2006 before he was delisted again an injury-disrupted 2007 season with the Northern Bullants, Carlton’s VFL affiliate.
A qualified carpenter, he played with Port Melbourne in the VFL from 2008-10, finished his playing career with his junior club Sale in Gippsland, and after a coaching stint there moved to the Gold Coast, where he is a site supervisor with a Gold Coast builder.
More information?.
It is Dylan McLaren. He won his first nine games in 2001-02-03 spread across every mainland state - three at the Gabba, two at Kardinia Park in Geelong, and one each at the SCG, Football Park in Adelaide, Subiaco in Perth and Marvel Stadium, and finished at the club 31-15.
Next best with seven wins in a row to start his Brisbane stint was Marcus Adams, and third with six wins was Kai Lohmann. Five players started 5-0 – current pair Keidean Coleman, James Madden, Matthew Leuenberger, Ash McGrath and Charman.
On the opposite side of the equation, two Brisbane players started with a club record 10 consecutive losses – Peter Worsfold, who went 3-1-27 through 31 games from 1991-93, and Ben Keays, now at Adelaide after 30 Lions games from 2016-2019 delivered a 6-24 record.
Richard Champion, Shane Hamilton, David Ogg and Michael McLean started 0-9 with Brisbane, while Charlie Cameron, Jarrod Berry, Cam Rayner followed Simon Luhrs, Danny Noonan and Jesse O’Brien in starting with the club 0-8.
And most consecutive home losses from game #1?
Shane Hamilton, who played 27 games with Geelong from 1988-90, including the 1989 grand final, started with nine in a row in 1991 when the Bears were based at Carrara, including the club’s first two games at the Gabba.
Keays (7) is next from McLean (6), Worsfold (5), Peter Curran (5), Matthew Moody (5) and Ryan Harwood (5).
