In 2024 we dive a little deeper in our match previews, uncovering the stats and data that make the match up on our doorstep each week.
This week we have a Grand Final rematch on our hands!
Perfect record
Five matches, five wins. That is Brisbane’s AFLW record against North Melbourne. Since entering the competition in 2019, the Kangaroos have beaten 16 different opponents - but not Brisbane.
They’ve had their chances. In both 2023 meetings, Brisbane trailed at every break, most notably an 18-point deficit at half-time in Round 4, but was in front when it mattered.
Even winning the inside-50s hasn’t helped North Melbourne. At Arden Street in October 2022, the Lions won by 7 despite losing the inside-50 count 23 to 43. In the Grand Final, Brisbane lost the inside-50s by 13 but won the match by 17.
Backing up is hard to do
Brisbane should beware that every AFLW premier has lost its next match to its Grand Final opponents. Brisbane gained immediate retribution after all three times it lost the decider, defeating Adelaide in Round 1 of 2018, Western Bulldogs in Round 4 of 2019, and Melbourne at Brighton Homes Arena in the final round of last year’s home-and-away season. On the flip side, the Lions had a horror follow-up to its 2021 triumph against Adelaide in the opening round of season 6, losing not only the match but Kate Lutkins to a ruptured ACL and Dakota Davidson to a foot sprain.
Daks and Bre on the board
Speaking of ‘Daks’, the charismatic forward has never failed to score against North Melbourne. Aside from missing last year’s famous victory in Launceston, Davidson hit the scoreboard once each at the Gabba, Whitten Oval and Arden Street before her crucial double strike in the last quarter of the Grand Final. Her five goals are the most for any player in Lions v Kangaroos matches ahead of Jasmine Garner with four, and both Sophie Conway and Emma King with three.
One name creeping up on that list is Bre Koenen. Twice in 2023, Koenen was moved from her familiar role in defence to take on the Roos’ midfield, which was no surprise to those who remember her QAFLW years in the midfield for University of Queensland. The aim was to put some physical pressure on Ash Riddell, Jasmine Garner and co., but Bre scored in both matches as well. Could Craig Starcevich pull the same move this Sunday?
Fifty Shades of Great
There isn’t much Courtney Hodder hasn’t done in the AFLW and much of it ends up on highlight reels. A goal of the year here, a mark of the year there, a classic goal in one Grand Final, 18 tackles in another – has anyone reached the 50-game milestone in the AFLW with more packed into her career?
One area where Hodder has room for improvement is her scoring record against North Melbourne. In five matches, she has just two goals and five behinds. There’s no issue with her tackling record: 9.4 tackles per match against the Kangas, well above her career average of 5.9. If Hodder maintains that kind of forward pressure and finds a way to hit the scoreboard more often, the highlight reel may become a full-length feature.
Touches v tackles
North Melbourne is a high disposal team. Ash Riddell has crazy disposal numbers against Brisbane, her five games yielding 25, 28, 22, 31 and 20 touches. Only four Brisbane players have recorded 20 or more disposals in a match against North; equal to Riddell’s worst haul. In Launceston last year, Jasmine Garner got 30 touches and still played second fiddle to Riddell’s 31.
Brisbane has countered that with tackle pressure. 10 times, a Lion has made 10 or more tackles against the Roos, led by Hodder’s 18, whereas only Mia King has completed 10 tackles against Brisbane (at Whitten Oval in Season 6).
New players, old style
Hodder has never done the forward-50 tackling all by herself, though. Mikayla Pauga averaged 2.8 tackles per match with the Lions, usually as a small forward, and she often spent only half the game on the field. With Pauga gone, those tackles and pressure acts need to be replaced from somewhere.
Charlie Mullins showed in 2023 that she was made-to-order for the Lions style, averaging 3.6 tackles in two-thirds of a match. Both of those figures may increase this year. Shanae Davison’s numbers in three seasons for West Coast weren’t much worse (2.3 tackles per match) and that was within a very different game plan. Even Sophie Peters, usually a midfielder, has shown her strong tackling ability in junior football and the state league and could be pushed forward.
In defence, the Lions will miss the pressure provided by the retired Phoebe Monahan. In this case, the answer is Kate Lutkins.
The personnel have changed a little. The style? Probably not.
