Lachie Neale will become the 10th player in AFL history to top 200 career votes in the Brownlow Medal as he chases a place in football immortality on Monday night.
Looking to become the fourth player to win the game’s highest individual honour three times, Neale will go into the 2024 count as third favourite, according to Lions betting partners TAB.
In an extraordinary streak since joining the club from Fremantle in 2019, Neale won the medal in 2020 and 2023, finished second by one vote in 2022 and was equal third in 2019.
He’s at $8 in the 2024 market behind Carlton captain Patrick Cripps and Collingwood’s Nick Daicos ($2.50) and ahead of Western Bulldogs captain Marcus Bontempelli ($13), Fremantle’s Caleb Serong ($34) and GWS’ Tom Green ($34).
Three-time winners of the Brownlow, awarded since 1924, have been Fitzroy legend Haydn Bunton (1931-32-35), Essendon’s Dick Reynolds (1934-37-38) and Ian Stewart, who won it in 1965-66 at St.Kilda and in 1975 with Richmond.
Neale is one of eight players to win the Brownlow twice at the same club, with Melbourne’s Ivor Warne-Smith (1926-28), Essendon’s Bill Hutchison (1952-53), Richmond’s Roy Wright (1952-54), North Melbourne’s Keith Greig (1973-74), St.Kilda’s Robert Harvey (1997-98), Sydney’s Adam Goodes (2003-06) and Fremantle’s Nat Fyfe (2015-19).
Four others have won it once each at different clubs – Peter Moore at Collingwood (1979) and Melbourne (1984), Greg Williams at Sydney (1986) and Carlton (1994), Chris Judd at West Coast (2004) and Carlton (2010) and Gary Ablett Jnr at Geelong (2009) and Gold Coast (2013).
Neale, who played 135 games with Fremantle from 2012-18, will go into Monday night’s count officially a “majority” Brisbane player after his 136th game for the Lions on Saturday night.
He polled 63 votes in 128 voting games with the Dockers, where he played seven finals in which votes are not awarded, and to the end of 2023 had a staggering 124 votes in 99 voting games with the Lions.
He’s third on the Brisbane vote list behind Simon Black (184) and Michael Voss (150), and ahead of Jonathan Brown (112), Nigel Lappin (93), Jason Akermanis (91), Dayne Zorko (85) and Luke Power (83).
His career tally of 187 is equal 11th on the all-time AFL list behind Ablett Jnr (262), Geelong captain Patrick Dangerfield (248), Hawthorn coach Sam Mitchell (227), ex-Collingwood captain Scott Pendlebury (221), Robert Harvey (215), ex-Geelong captain Joel Selwood (214), recently-retired Richmond ace Dustin Martin (212), Judd (210) and North Melbourne’s AFL games record-holder Brent Harvey (191), and equal with Fyfe (187).
Collingwood’s Dane Swan and Sydney/Hawthorn great Lance Franklin are equal 13th with 186 votes, with Black 15th at 184 from Skilton (180), Fitzroy legend Kevin Murray (178) and one-time Brisbane Bears centreman turned Collingwood captain Nathan Buckley (178). Bulldogs’ Scott West (175) and Port’s Travis Boak (174) complete the top 20 from Leigh Matthews (173.5).
These totals are “adjusted”, with votes in 1976-77, when two umpires each voted 3-2-1, halved for comparison purposes.
Aggregate votes across the League from 2019-23 see Neale (124) head Bontempelli (104), Melbourne’s Christian Petracca (93) and Clayton Oliver (88), Hawthorn/Collingwood midfielder Tom Mitchell (84), Cripps (83), Essendon captain Zach Merrett (83), St.Kilda captain Jack Steele (75), ex-Sydney captain Luke Parker (74) and ex-Port Adelaide captain Travis Boak (72).
So what might happen on Monday night?
Neale will definitely pick up the 13 votes he needs to reach 200. But if the 5-4-3-2-1 votes awarded by each coach after each game in the Coach’s Player of the Year Award are converted to notional 3-2-1 Brownlow Medal votes there won’t be the fairytale finish Lions fans will be hoipng for.
Neale will hit the front with three votes in Round 21 against St.Kilda, miss out in Rounds 22-23 and poll two votes against Essendon in Round 24 to finish fourth.
The final leaderboard in the notional ‘Coachlow’ Medal sees Daicos (30.25) win from the ineligible Isaac Heeney from Sydney (29), Cripps (28.6), Neale (27.5), Serong (23) and Bontempelli (22).
Tom Green, equal fifth in the TAB Brownlow market, is the curious one. He was equal 31st in the ‘Coachlow’ with only eight votes and wasn’t even close to being the Giants’ leading vote-getter. Coleman Medallist Jesse Hogan (16) headed the GWS vote from captain Toby Greene (8) and Tom Green (8).
Neale will have mixed views on the merits of the ‘Coachlow’ conversion and comparison.
In the Covid-shortened season 2020 it was perfect. In the “Coachlow” Neale (27) topped the vote from Boak (22), Petracca (19.5) and Steele (17), and in the Brownlow it was Neale (31) from Boak (21), Petracca (20) and Steele (20).
But last year it wasn’t the case. Neale was fourth in the ‘Coachlow’ with 24 votes behind Bontempelli (28), Nick Daicos (26.5), Butters (25.3) and ahead of Gulden (23.25) and Petracca (23), but in the Brownlow it was the same six in a different order – Neale (31) from Bontempelli (29), Daicos (28), Butters and Gulden (27) and Petracca (26).
In 2022 Neale topped the ‘Coachlow’ with 24.5 votes from Port’s Connor Rozee (22.25), Cripps (21.5) and Gold Coast’s Touk Miller (21.5) before the Brownlow went Cripps (29) from Neale (28) and Miller (27).
As new AFL chief executive Andrew Dillon prepares to call the Brownlow votes for the first time on Monday night Lions fans will be hoping he puts in plenty of practice on his “three votes … L Neale”. Because to win he’ll need lots of three-vote hauls.
In the ‘Coachlow’ Neale polled a perfect ‘10’ five times, and polled eight or nine votes, which could equate to three Brownlow votes, a further five times. But he polled minor votes only twice, and did not feature in the coaches votes 11 times.
Daicos polled a total of 16 times, Cripps 15, Bontempell 13, Serong 17 times and Heeney 16 times despite missing one game through his suspension. Tom Green polled 10 times.
THE VOTE-COUNT …. AS IT MIGHT UNFOLD
Don’t expect the Lions to feature in Opening Round or Round 1, when they started with back-to-back losses to Carlton at home and Fremantle away, but Neale split the coaches votes with Collingwood’s Jamie Elliott in the Round 3 home loss, when he had 35 possessions (20 contested), 10 clearances and a goal.
In the big Round 4 win over North Melbourne in Gather Round, when he had 27 possessions, Neale was rated best by the coaches collectively despite strong showings from teammates Hugh McCluggage (36), Josh Dunkley (31) and Dayne Zorko (28 possessions, 1 goal) and North’s Harry Sheezel (35 possessions).
Cam Rayner, Dunkley and McCluggage will get the Brownlow votes in Round 6 MCG win over Melbourne, according to the coaches, but Rounds 7-8 against Geelong at home and GWS in Canberra shape as wipes.
Zorko won the Marcus Ashcroft Medal in Round 9 against Gold Coast and is tipped to top the Brownlow votes from Dunkley and Harris Andrews, while Jack Payne could feature in the Brownlow for the first time in the Round 9 draw with Adelaide in Adelaide.
The 119-point win over Richmond at the Gabba in Round 10 could throw up anything, but the coaches pointed to Neale (36 possessions) collecting three votes from Zorko (35 possessions, one goal) and Rising Star nominee Kai Lohmann, who is in line for his first medal vote after kicking five goals.
The Round 11 loss to Hawthorn at the MCG will be a wipe, but after the Round 12 bye the Lions can expect a flood of votes in a nine-game winning streak.
Neale shapes as a three-vote certainty against the Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium in Round 13, when he had 38 possessions, two goals and 10 clearances as Eric Hipwood kicked six goals, but Joe Daniher (five goals), McCluggage (26 possessions, two goals) and Zorko (30 possessions) are likely vote-getters against St.Kilda at the Gabba the following week.
In Round 15 Neale (37 possessions, 10 clearances) and Dunkley (32 possessions) were standouts in the 79-point Adelaide Oval slaughter of Port Adelaide, but Oscar McInerney topped the coaches votes with his 18 possessions (15 contested), three goals, eight clearances and 31 hit-outs.
And in Round 16, when McCluggage’s late goal gave the Lions a five-point home win over Melbourne, the coaches went with Dunkley (32 possessions, 10 tackles, seven clearances) and McCluggage (28 possessions, one goal).
If the ‘Coachlow’ proves correct then Neale will bag four three-vote Brownlow hauls in the next five games, missing out only in the Round 19 home heart-stopper against Sydney , when McCluggage was notionally best with Rayner.
In Rounds 17-18-20-21 against Adelaide, West Coast, Gold Coast and Sydney he had 36-34-35-33 possessions for a total of 138 (63 contested) to go with six goals and 36 clearances. Even when Zorko won his second Marcus Ashcroft Medal in Round 20 Neale was preferred in the coaches votes.
In the same period Dunkley, McCluggage and McInerney are tipped to poll twice, and Zorko and Rayner once.
So in the ‘Coachlow’ Neale has by now hit the front. He has 25.5 votes to lead Daicos (24.25), Cripps (23.6), the ineligible Heeney (23), Bontempelli (22) and Serong (21).
But by his own towering standards the prolific #9 was only average in Rounds 22-23 when the Lions gave up five-goal leads to lose to GWS at home and Collingwood at the MCG.
By now nursing a bad foot, he had 24 possessions and a goal against the Giants, and 22 possessions and two goals against the Pies. Will Ashcroft is tipped to be in the votes against GWS and Daniher likewise against Collingwood.
In Round 24 Neale had 40 possessions and a goal but ranked only second in the combined coaches vote behind McCluggage, who had 29 possessions and a goal. Ashcroft, too, could complicate the vote with his 30 possessions.
Neale heads the aggregate Lions ‘Coachlow’ vote with 27.5 from McCluggage (12), Dunkley (10.5), Zorko (8.5), Daniher (6.5), Rayner (6.5), McInerney (5), Hipwood (3), Ashcroft (2), Payne (2), Andrews (1.5), Lohmann (1.5) and Brandon Starcevich (0.5).
