Brisbane began Week 8 in third place, behind Hawthorn on percentage and one win ahead of both Adelaide and Richmond. Dropping just one match would put the Lions in a three-way tussle for the finals double chance, but continuing their winning form would ensure third at worst and just maybe pressure likely finals debutantes Hawthorn into a stumble.

Last time they met

Given Geelong’s downturn in form and, to be fair, luck in 2024, it’s difficult to believe that these clubs played out an epic Preliminary Final last November. Twice in the second quarter, the Lions lost and regained the lead. In the final term with Dakota Davidson injured and fearing the worst, Shannon Campbell turned back the clock to her QAFLW days with Maroochydore, stepped into the forward line, and slotted the winner.

The Lions won the tackles that night 88-69 with 34 of those laid by the inner sanctum of Belle Dawes (14), Cathy Svarc (10) and Ally Anderson (10). Cats midfielder Nina Morrison dominated the clearances with nine but was held to just five effective disposals.

Last time they met in Geelong

February 2020 was already the second rebuild for Brisbane after losing key players to Gold Coast and St Kilda over the off-season. In Round 2 against Geelong, seven players, including Dakota Davidson, Belle Dawes, Orla O’Dwyer, Lily Postlethwaite and Cathy Svarc, were playing their second AFLW match while Nat Grider was playing her fourth. These days, they have a combined 339 games’ experience.

The Round 1 upset of then premiers Adelaide seemed a distant memory when the Lions entered the main break at with one goal to their name and an 11-point deficit. The second half, however, was all Brisbane. They kept Geelong to a single point and scored five majors themselves, the highlight being Davidson’s first AFLW goal in which she gathered a loose ball, stepped inside a defender, and roosted home from 40 metres. A legend was born.

Catching Aish the Flaish

The Lions knew about Aishling Moloney when she was still in Tipperary, and they tried hard to lure her to the club. Had they succeeded, can you imagine a tall forward line comprising Davidson, Taylor Smith and Moloney? Alas, Geelong won that race and Moloney is now the main challenger to Smith at the top of the goalscoring charts.

Moloney has the skills to be a traditional full forward who presents as a tall target and takes contested marks. She is also quick and can run past any defence that presses too high. Oh, and she also has a big engine and will often show up at halfback or even in defensive 50 before sprinting forward again. Full forwards don’t typically average 14.5 disposals a game. Tagging Moloney is probably impossible so Brisbane will need to work out when to apply the leash and when to just let her run away.

Taylor (doesn’t need to be as) swift

Taylor Smith has scored in every round this year partly because she has been doing the opposite of Moloney, i.e. not charging around the field. Craig Starcevich has previously spoken about the addition of Eleanor Hartill allowing Smith to stay up front without needing to play the second ruck role, so the Cats defence won’t have the same challenge in stopping Smith that the Lions have against Moloney.

‘Different’ does not mean ‘easier’. Geelong’s three main defensive spoilers, Claudia Gunjaca (2.8 spoils per match), Anna-Rose Kennedy (2.6) and captain Meg McDonald (2.3) are all shorter than Smith and can’t match her vertical leap. The same applies against Davidson and Hartill. There are matches when the most important forwards for Brisbane are the short and fast variety that can lock the ball inside 50, but this might be one match when the best plan is to take to the skies.

Few leaves to turn over

Modern Aussie Rules is sometimes said to be a turnover game. Teams turn the ball over an average of 57 times a match in this year’s AFLW, so it makes sense to learn how to best use the ball when it arrives with a ribbon tied around it. That may be more difficult this week.

Brisbane tops the league for turnovers giving away just 52.6 a game, but not only is Geelong equal second with 53.3, they have been miserly in their last two matches, coughing up the Sherrin just 40 times in each match while having a majority of possession both times. Broken play opportunities are likely to be scarce on Sunday, so any turnovers that the Lions or Cats can create and convert will be even more valuable than usual.

The circle of power

Brisbane’s game does not rely on dominating the centre restarts, but it so happens that the Lions are way ahead of the league for centre clearances this year (7.5 per match, second is Hawthorn with 6.6). Geelong is having problems galore in the middle of the park, which is part of why their season has been so frustrating.

The Cats lost three rucks before the season started: Erin Hoare to retirement and both Lilly Pearce and Liv Fuller to injury. The replacements have been good around the ground but the bald statistic is that Geelong is last in the league for hit-outs (20.3 per match). Add to that the injury to star midfielder Amy McDonald, who still leads the comp for centre clearances with 2.2 per match, and the result is that not only are the Cats last in the league for clearances (25.3), but they are the only side not to record 30 clearances in any match this year. Their best three clearance tallies were all before McDonald’s injury.

That figure of 25.3 all but matches the average of 25 clearances that Brisbane concedes, which is the best in the comp. Add those stats together and the Lions may want to prepare for an increased number of chances coming from restarts, which should balance out the comparative lack of openings from turnover ball. Anderson and Dawes giving even more time and space to Sophie Conway and the returning O’Dwyer to run riot out wide could be the key to Brisbane maintaining its perfect, albeit brief, record at GMHBA Stadium intact.

Possible milestones

Orla O’Dwyer has been sitting on 795 career disposals for several frustrating weeks. An average game would see her become the sixth Lion to reach 800 disposals, and as make the one intercept possession she needs to take her to 200.

O’Dwyer could be beaten to the 200 intercept possession milestone by Jade Ellenger who also begins the game on 199. Ellenger has a second stat milestone race, this time against Belle Dawes whose 399 career uncontested possessions is one ahead of Ellenger.

Dawes, who reached 300 tackles and 50 centre clearances during her Q-Clash Best on Ground performance, has taken 99 marks in her career. The midfielder is highly unlikely to reach the 100-mark milestone with a leaping specky. Yes Belle, that sentence is intended as a challenge.