Nine from twelve. The great anomaly of the AFLW is that the rivalry between its two most successful teams is so even overall but so lopsided when facing each other. Adelaide leads Brisbane for most premierships (3 to 2), most wins (66 to 64) and most goals (577 to 554); Brisbane leads Adelaide for most Finals appearances (8 to 7), most Grand Final appearances (5 to 4) and, for true fans of footy stats, most behinds (592 to 587). But head-to-head? Brisbane has won nine from twelve. In finals, it’s three from four. Why is it so?

It makes no sense

The explanation won’t come from traditional match statistics. Brisbane has won the disposal count only four times, the inside-50s four times, inside-50 marks four times, contested possessions four times, uncontested possessions six times, clearances six times, and had more time in possession six times. Even the few stats categories that Brisbane win provide no clues. The Lions have lost the tackle count only once, way back in the first meeting in 2017, and have had fewer bounces than Adelaide only once. That’s right, in Brislaide matches, the statistic that has the highest correlation with victory is bounces. This makes even less sense when you remember that the Crows’ greatest player was also a professional basketballer.

Bunch of fives

By now, you might have some variation of “the only number that matters is the number of points you score” running through your head. Fair cop. In AFLW history, a team’s chances of scoring one more point that its opponents increase greatly once they score five goals. AFLW teams have scored five goals in a match 53% of the time and gone on to win 76% of the time.

Brisbane is currently on a 19-match streak of scoring five goals or more in a match. The shock loss to Collingwood last year is the only time since the length of AFLW matches was extended that a Lions side has failed to raise the flags at least five times. Even in the three matches of those 19 that Brisbane lost, they’ve still given themselves a chance by keeping the scoreboard moving in multiples of six.

Adelaide has scored five goals or more in only four of its last eight matches. This contrasts sharply with their 2023 form which put them second on the five-goal-streak list. The 2023 Crows scored five goals in every match except their Preliminary Final loss to North Melbourne. The Kangaroos’ 4.8-32 to 4.7-31 victory is the only time an AFLW Preliminary Final has been won by a team that kicked fewer than five goals.

Most Consecutive AFLW Matches with Five Goals or More

And now… tempting fate

Of the ten AFLW Preliminary Finals to date, the home team has won… (checks notes)… ten times. Brisbane has made the most of this situation by winning its three Prelims at three different homes: the Gabba (over Collingwood in 2021), Carrara (Adelaide in November 2022) and Brighton Homes Arena (Geelong twelve months ago). The sole loss was away to Melbourne at the MCG in April 2022.

How you react to this statistic depends on what kind of fan you are. If you’re of a confident disposition, you will see this as confirmation that history is on Brisbane’s side and nothing can possibly go wrong. If you’re of a more nervous bent, you may be about to close your screen and pretend you never read this.

Regardless of whether you’re an Elmo or a Telly Monster, it’s worth remembering that three of Brisbane’s four Preliminary Finals have been decided by four points, so it’s likely to be tight. Having said that, the one that wasn’t decided by four points was against Adelaide. That was a 23-point win for the Lions. But whereas Brisbane’s two four-point Preliminary Final wins were followed by a Grand Final victory, the 23-point win was not. Victory in a Preliminary Final by anything other than four points would put Brisbane into dangerously unknown territory.

Upcoming Milestones

The big stat watch for Saturday night is on Taylor Smith and Sophie Conway, both of whom stand on 49 career goals. The chances of both reaching this milestone this week are… wait for it… fifty-fifty.

Belle Dawes enters this match on 985 career disposals. Even an average match by her standards should see her hit the kilo. Bre Koenen is barely behind her on 982, but may well be hoping that she doesn’t need to reach the thousand this week.

Koenen has 240 career tackles and, again, may hope that she doesn’t need to become the seventh Lion to reach 250, but it would be fun for the rest of us if she did. More likely is Lily Postlethwaite getting the one tackle she needs to reach 100 for her career.

Sophie Conway has already broken the Lions’ season record for inside-50s with 51. One more will give her 200 inside-50 entries for her career, behind only Ally Anderson (233) and Orla O’Dwyer (203).