The Brisbane Lions are making a habit of statement wins in season 2019.
On first inspection, beating a Melbourne side that's fallen well short of pre-season expectations, especially at the Gabba, might not seem one of them.
But not giving it a second look would be a mistake.
This Demons side, for all its faults, was superior to every other in winning contested possession last year, and was still ranked fourth this season before facing the Lions on Sunday.
Melbourne was also No.1 for clearances and centre clearances going into the clash.
What the Lions went on to do was as big a football insult possible to Melbourne coach Simon Goodwin, who's built his team brand around dominating at the coalface.
The Lions savaged the Demons 20-6 in the centre clearances – the biggest differential in any AFL game this season – and it was their most significant victory in that statistic since round 14, 2011.
That’s win Number 9 Lions Fans!
— Brisbane Lions (@brisbanelions) June 30, 2019
Hipwood with a 5 goal haul, Neale with a casual 38 disposals
Lions: 107 - Dees: 74 pic.twitter.com/A22GxzkpE7
That day, against Fremantle, the difference was 15.
For Melbourne, it was the club's equal second-worst differential ever recorded.
Brisbane also won 27 – twenty-seven – more contested possessions than the Demons, a differential that trails only its plus-29 effort against reigning premier West Coast in round one.
Eric Hipwood's high five of goals, including four in a 15-minute patch in the third quarter, blew Melbourne away, but it was four teammates, in particular, who started the rot.
PLAYER | DISPOSALS | CONTESTED POSSESSIONS | CLEARANCES | CENTRE CLEARANCES |
Lachie Neale | 38 | 23 | 12 | 4 |
Jarryd Lyons | 33 | 14 | 6 | 2 |
Dayne Zorko | 31 | 16 | 7 | 5 |
Hugh McCluggage | 23 | 11 | 6 | 3 |
Any lingering doubts about the Lions' legitimacy, given oxygen in a disappointing fadeout against lowly Carlton in round 12, were so far responded to with emphatic defeats of the Saints and Dees.
Tougher challenges are on the horizon, starting with Greater Western Sydney on Sunday, but the numbers tell us they have evolved and look the real deal.
The Lions 90.5 points per match are the AFL's third-most, and no team has scored 100 points this year more than the Lions' seven.
They've also conceded a triple-digit tally just twice, something only four sides have bettered.
STATISTIC | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
Inside 50 differential | -14.9 (18th) | -4.3 (14th) | +3.8 (4th) |
Time in fwd half differential | -14:53 (18th) | -6:25 (14th) | +5:17 (3rd) |
Poss gains in fwd half | 17.4 (18th) | 21.3 (15th) | 26.4 (4th) |
Points from fwd half poss gains | 25.8 (16th) | 24.8 (13th) | 31.4 (2nd) |
Centre-bounce points differential | -6.1 (18th) | -1.4 (14th) | +8.1 (1st) |
Score per inside 50 % | 49.1% (4th) | 44% (10th) | 46% (3rd) |
Kick-to-handball ratio | 1.29 (6th) | 1.36 (8th) | 1.67 (2nd) |
Mark, play on (excl. F50) % | 32.6% (12th) | 32.2% (6th) | 26.9% (14th) |
Boundary (from D50) % | 45.3% (13th) | 44.1% (17th) | 60.8% (1st) |
So what's stopping the Lions surging from 15th last year to being a premiership contender in 2019?
There is no simplistic answer to that question, but there will need to be at least one serious adjustment, judging off the past eight flag-winners.
They all, bar the Western Bulldogs (seventh), ranked in the top three for points from intercepts differential, and also top four in points from clearance differential.
The Lions have the second one covered – ranking equal-first – but comes in just 11th for the other.
Don't count against the Lions changing that in the season's latter stages, even if a premiership seems a bridge too far.