THE 2016 season is done and dusted and the player movement rumour mill is about to shift into overdrive as the countdown to the NAB AFL Trade Period begins.
Already Jaeger O'Meara has declared he wants to take his talents to Hawthorn, where the Gold Coast midfielder is tipped to be joined by Sydney Swans ball magnet Tom Mitchell and Tigers tall Ty Vickery.
North Melbourne veteran Daniel Wells looks headed to Collingwood, and Richmond star Brett Deledio could be on the move.
Meanwhile, GWS rising star Rory Lobb is a wanted man.
In some cases, like Travis Cloke's impending departure from Collingwood, the talk of players looking for fresh starts has been bubbling away for months.
But which players could be the best buys and who might be busts?
As fans debate which players their clubs should try to land, AFL.com.au has compiled a list of some top trade targets and ranked them, by position, in several key statistics since 2013.
Ruck/forwards
With some tall timber cut down by injuries, arguably the hottest property in football right now is the big forward who can take a mark in attack and at least pinch-hit in the ruck, or vice versa.
Hawthorn, West Coast, Fremantle and Carlton are among the clubs on the lookout for genuine big men.
Richmond free agent Ty Vickery has reportedly been offered a deal to swap yellow and black for brown and gold, and the Hawks could be eyeing a bargain buy in the Tigers' whipping boy.
Vickery, 26, represents an upgrade on Jack Fitzpatrick, who became a stop-gap option for the Hawks' finals campaign after Jonathon Ceglar went down with a season-ending knee injury.
Meanwhile, 206cm Giants surprise packet Rory Lobb would be a perfect fit for the Eagles – missing Nic Naitanui for most of next season – or Dockers, still led by ageing giant Aaron Sandilands in the ruck.
The emerging 23-year-old has only played 35 matches, but he can already dominate the air and spoon-feed midfielders with his tap work, although it will be tough to prise him from western Sydney.
Richmond has been linked to Nathan Vardy and the injury-prone 25-year-old Cat could prove to be a bargain, if he can stay on the park.
Vardy has a ton of talent but has managed just 25 games since his debut in 2011 after a series of knee and hip problems.
| PLAYER | HAD% | HO | CM | G | SI | 1on1 W% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Lobb | 33.5 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 4.4 | 25.8 |
| Ty Vickery | 30.5 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 5.3 | 31.4 |
| Nathan Vardy | 23.5 | 11.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 4.4 | 28.1 |
| Zac Clarke | 24.9 | 15.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 17.4 |
LEGEND: HAD% - hitouts to advantage %; HO - hitouts; CM - contested marks; G - goals; SI - score involvements; 1on1 W% - % of one-on-one contests won
Key forwards
Jesse Hogan is now off the market, but was a promising trade target.
The 2015 NAB AFL Rising Star winner is already an elite contested mark, one-on-one beast and better than average kick at goal, despite his stuttering run-up.
Meanwhile, the Western Bulldogs' premiership triumph and Tom Boyd's amazing Grand Final performance has raised fresh doubts whether Travis Cloke would be the right fit at the Kennel.
The powerhouse big man has still been ranked elite for marks inside 50 and contested marks since 2013, but could he apply enough pressure to fit into the frenetic Dogs' forward line? The jury is out.
Versatile forward Shane Kersten played 17 games and booted 22 goals for Geelong this year, but after missing out on finals he appears a strong chance to head home to form part of a new-look Fremantle attack and could be a relatively cheap pick-up.
The Dockers should land Cam McCarthy this trade period, while North Melbourne's forgotten forward Aaron Black's plummeting market value could also make him worth a cut-price gamble.
Melbourne veteran Chris Dawes has attracted interest from rival clubs and still has something to offer, although 31-year-old sharpshooter Jay Schulz's career might be over.
| PLAYER | F50M | Acc% | Set% | SA | CM | 1on1 W% | PA | G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Hogan | 2.8 | 62.0 | 60.6 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 31.5 | 7.0 | 2.1 |
| Travis Cloke | 3.1 | 56.8 | 56.8 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 34.3 | 8.0 | 2.2 |
| Shane Kersten | 1.3 | 58.6 | 53.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 22.9 | 9.2 | 1.1 |
| Aaron Black | 1.7 | 56.1 | 53.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 17.4 | 9.5 | 1.3 |
| Jay Schulz | 2.7 | 69.8 | 72.2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 23.9 | 8.9 | 2.2 |
| Chris Dawes | 1.0 | 57.3 | 56.9 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 31.4 | 11.9 | 0.9 |
LEGEND: F50M - marks inside forward 50; Acc% - scoring accuracy %; Set% - set-shot accuracy %; SA - score assists; CM - contested marks; 1on1 W% - % of one-on-one contests won; PA - pressure acts; G - goals.
General forwards
Forwards who can lock the ball in and hit the scoreboard are seeing their stocks skyrocket.
Dockers veteran Hayden Ballantyne's form has been on the wane, but for the right price it would be worth rivals West Coast filling a need in the small forward department and planting the 29-year-old at spearhead Josh Kennedy's feet.
Meanwhile, the future of heart-and-soul Tigers champion Brett Deledio appears in limbo.
Geelong continues to be linked to the veteran and Deledio would appear the perfect fit given his versatility and sheer class.
| PLAYER | SI | PA | T | G | KE (F50%) | F50M | Acc% | SetAcc% | SA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Deledio | 6.8 | 12.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 47.1 | 0.9 | 55.5 | 56.3 | 0.9 |
| Will Hoskin-Elliott | 4.0 | 10.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 41.8 | 1.0 | 47.1 | 40.6 | 0.8 |
| Hayden Ballantyne | 5.6 | 13.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 49.4 | 1.4 | 59.0 | 59.8 | 1.0 |
| Chris Mayne | 5.5 | 19.7 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 54.5 | 1.3 | 62.7 | 58.3 | 1.1 |
LEGEND: SI - score involvements; PA - pressure acts; T - tackles; G - goals; KE (F50)% - kicking efficiency inside forward 50; F50M - marks inside forward 50; Acc% - scoring accuracy %; Set% - set-shot accuracy %; SA - score assists
Midfielders
The jungle drums have been beating louder and louder that Daniel Wells will take up a free agency move to Collingwood.
The 31-year-old was back near his best after shrugging off injury concerns this season and could help propel the Pies towards finals as part of one of the League's deepest midfields.
Ditto for Steven Motlop, who has been linked to Richmond after a dismal preliminary final, as the Tigers look to bring in class alongside wantaway Suns midfielder Dion Prestia.
Meanwhile, if the Hawks can get Jaeger O'Meara on the park and also land Tom Mitchell, who had a superb Grand Final, they will clearly beef up their 'inside' presence alongside champion Sam Mitchell.
| PLAYER | CP | UP | SI | C |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaeger O'Meara | 10.0 | 11.7 | 5.5 | 4.2 |
| Tom Mitchell | 10.3 | 14.9 | 6.0 | 3.3 |
| Dion Prestia | 10.8 | 15.2 | 6.0 | 5.2 |
| Daniel Wells | 8.7 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 4.5 |
| Steven Motlop | 5.2 | 14.2 | 6.6 | 1.2 |
LEGEND: CP - contested possessions; UP - uncontested possessions - score involvements; C - clearances
Key defenders
Eric Mackenzie has tumbled down the pecking order at West Coast, but the former club champion could represent outstanding value for a suitor such as St Kilda.
Mackenzie struggled to adapt to the Eagles' zone defence in his return from a knee reconstruction this season.
However, the 28-year-old is rarely beaten in one-on-one situations and could be one of the League's most reliable defenders if he rediscovers his best.
Mackenzie's numbers compare well to teammate Mitch Brown, who was a spare parts player this year, and Brown's twin brother Nathan, who attracted interest from North Melbourne but seems a strange fit for the rebuilding Roos nearing his 28th birthday.
Talented GWS tall Caleb Marchbank will almost certainly be traded to Carlton and should fill a key defensive post alongside Jacob Weitering for the next decade.
The 19-year-old only has seven games under his belt and needs to add some size to his slender frame – he has lost nearly half his one-on-one contests in his short career – but has the potential to be a star.
| PLAYER | SP | 1on1 L% | IM | IP | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Mackenzie | 6.9 | 16.7 | 1.8 | 5.9 | 7.7 |
| Caleb Marchbank | 2.6 | 45.5 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 5.1 |
| Nathan Brown | 6.7 | 24.9 | 1.0 | 3.8 | 6.5 |
| Sam Rowe | 6.3 | 24.8 | 1.3 | 4.2 | 7.3 |
| Mitch Brown | 2.9 | 30.8 | 0.9 | 3.7 | 8.3 |
LEGEND: SP - spoils; 1on1 L% - % of one-on-one contests lost; IM - intercept marks; IP - intercept possessions; PA - pressure acts
Stats provided by Champion Data. All stats from 2013-2016.
Noble on NAB AFL Trade Radio
