FORM GUIDE
Fresh from causing the upset of the season against Essendon last weekend, the Lions will take great confidence into Saturday night’s all-important clash with Carlton.
The Lions have been listed as rank underdogs again by bookmakers, despite being back in front of their home crowd at the Gabba.
Carlton currently sits four places higher than the Lions on the ladder with one extra win from their first eight matches.
After a relatively slow start to the season under new coach Mick Malthouse, the Blues have kicked into gear with four wins from their past five starts and are widely tipped to be big players come September.
The Lions have also hit some form in the past fortnight, and look a vastly different outfit to the one that suffered heavy losses to the Western Bulldogs, North Melbourne and Sydney earlier in the season.
SELECTION TABLE
The Lions have been forced to make two changes to the side that shot down the Bombers last week, with key defenders Daniel Merrett (three weeks) and Justin Clarke (one week) copping bans from the AFL match Review Panel.
The Lions have replaced the pair with clever small forward Josh Green and first-gamer Sam Michael.
Michael’s size and versatility will enable the Lions to re-work their structures to ensure that the absence of both Merrett and Clarke doesn’t impact too heavily on the side.
Ryan Lester and Brent Staker look the most likely candidates to fill those key defensive posts alongside reigning Club Champion Joel Patfull.
The Blues, meanwhile, have included key playmaker Bryce Gibbs who has missed the past three matches with a hamstring injury.
Gibbs returns at the expense of Troy Menzel - a former South Australian teammate of Lion Sam Mayes who made his senior debut as the substitute last week against the Crows.
KEY MATCH-UPS
With Merrett and Clarke out, and Matt Maguire still recovering from a leg injury, much of the Lions’ planning this week would have no doubt focussed around the team’s defensive set-up against the Blues.
Fortunately Carlton’s forward line doesn’t feature a wealth of tall options, but it’s incredibly potent nonetheless.
Jarrad Waite (194cm) is their main spearhead, so will probably be expecting to spend the bulk of his evening alongside Joel Patfull.
Carlton’s resting ruckmen – whether it is Matthew Kreuzer or Robert Warnock – will provide other marking targets, and will require some serious attention. Brent Staker or Ryan Lester seem the most likely for that task, although Jordan Lisle and Sam Michael could switch to defence at a pinch.
Then it will be up to the likes of Mitch Golby, Jed Adcock, Ash McGrath and Elliot Yeo to curtail the Blues’ dangerous small forwards.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Simon Black had 12 disposals in around 30 minutes after starting as the sub in his return match against West Coast two weeks ago, and racked up 16 touches in just over a half against the Bombers last Saturday before being handed the red vest.
The midfield superstar has shown he can still find plenty of the ball, and after being eased into his first two matches back, might finally be ready for a full game.
It’s no coincidence that the Lions’ performances have improved significantly since his on-field return.
For the Blues, it’s hard to go past Marc Murphy.
Murphy can be a ball-winning machine in the centre of the ground, and last week proved just how dangerous he can be when playing up forward. The Carlton skipper kicked three goals against Port Adelaide, while still managing to rack up 24 possessions.
MISSING IN ACTION
The Lions’ most notable absentees – Merrett, Maguire and Clarke – are all key defenders, while midfielder Daniel Rich is still a month away from his return.
Carlton, meanwhile, are still without three key players in Andrew Carrazzo (calf), Eddie Betts (suspension) and Chris Yarran (hamstring).
But the inclusion of Gibbs is significant.
RECENT HISTORY
The Lions haven’t defeated Carlton since Round 2 of 2010 – back when Brendan Fevola met his former side for the first time at the Gabba.
The Blues have since done it quite comfortably over the Lions, with an average winning margin of more than 60 points across their past four wins.
More concerning is the fact the most recent match between these two sides at the Gabba ended in a 91-point win to the visitors.
However, the Lions did get one back over Carlton earlier this year in the 2013 NAB Cup Grand Final to secure the merged Club’s first pre-season title.
SATURDAY NIGHT SPECIAL
The Brisbane Lions once ‘owned’ Saturday nights at the Gabba, but this will be the Club’s first match scheduled on a Saturday evening in Brisbane for 2013.
In fact, it will be the Lions’ first Saturday night match at the Gabba since their famous win over Adelaide in Round 21 last year.
Round Nine Preview
Can the Lions cause another upset against Carlton this Saturday night?