The Lions have gone for some more experience with veteran Travis Johnstone coming back into the line-up after one week in the reserves to replace two-gamer Matt Austin.
After losing to Carlton by 19 points just eight weeks ago, Rich said the Lions had learned lessons from that fixture that would serve them well on Saturday.
The 18-year-old has made a huge impression in his 10 senior games to date and is coming off a season-high 25 disposals against North Melbourne last week.
"They have a strong midfield but we always love a challenge so it’s always good to come up against teams like this," he said.
And with four wins from five on their home ground, the NAB Rising Star nominee said it was important to keep the momentum going at the Gabba.
"It’s good to have a home ground that can put the opposition back a bit," he said.
"It’s good for teams to know that when they come up here, we’re hard to beat at the Gabba. We’re slowly bringing that back."
Carlton has also brought some experience back into their team for the trip north.
Andrew Carrazzo, Heath Scotland and Shaun Grigg have come back at the expense of Mark Austin, Mitch Robinson and Jordan Russell.
The teams
Brisbane Lions
B: Ashley McGrath, Joel Macdonald, Jed Adcock
HB: Sam Sheldon, Lachlan Henderson, Josh Drummond
C: Scott Harding, Simon Black, Daniel Rich
HF: Michael Rischitelli, Jonathan Brown, James Polkinghorne
F: Rhan Hooper, Daniel Bradshaw, Luke Power
Foll: Mitch Clark, Cheynee Stiller, Justin Sherman
I/C: Tim Notting, Albert Proud, Jared Brennan, Travis Johnstone
In: Johnstone
Out: Matt Austin
Carlton
B: Dennis Armfield, Michael Jamison, Paul Bower
HB: Nick Stevens, Bret Thornton, Bryce Gibbs
C: Kade Simpson, Aaron Joseph, Heath Scotland
HF: Brad Fisher, Setanta O’hAilpin, Andrew Carrazzo
F: Shaun Hampson, Brendan Fevola, Eddie Betts
Foll: Matthew Kreuzer, Chris Judd, Marc Murphy
I/C: Steven Browne, Jeff Garlett, Shaun Grigg, Ryan Houlihan
In: Carrazzo, Grigg, Scotland
Out: Mark Austin, Mitch Robinson, Jordan Russell
On the punt
The Lions' great form of late, and their good early season record at home (4-1) has the bookies confident, having installed them as $1.55 favourites. Despite winning against the Lions at the Gabba in round 21 last year, and in round two in Melbourne this season, Carlton are the $2.35 outsiders. With a number of the league’s best forwards on show, there is also a market for the game’s leading goal scorer. Jonathan Brown ($3.80) has kicked 23 goals in his last four matches against the Blues and might be worth a couple of dollars.
Key match-up
Cheynee Stiller (Lions) v Marc Murphy (Carlton). While midfield match-ups chop and change in modern footy, Stiller has been used effectively as a stopper of late. He put the clamps on St Kilda gun Nick Dal Santo two weeks ago, and looks a good match for the similarly skilled Carlton on-baller. Murphy can turn a game in an instant and was a catalyst for the match-winning second term in round two.
Odds and sods
Marc Murphy (Carlton) and Sam Sheldon (Lions) could easily be playing for the opposition on Saturday night, but both bypassed the father-son rule. Murphy’s dad John was a Fitzroy legend, while Sheldon’s dad Ken won three premierships for Carlton. But both men decided to go straight into the NAB AFL Draft and forgo the chance to play for the same clubs as their dads. Murphy was taken at no.1 in 2006 and Sheldon at no.70 in 2007.
The teams may be well known for their strong midfields and power forwards, but Carlton and the Lions have the third and fourth best defences respectively in the AFL. The Blues have conceded just 878 points and the Lions 888 to trail just undefeated St Kilda (576) and Geelong (768).
The Carlton midfield certainly has no trouble finding the ball. Chris Judd, Marc Murphy and Bryce Gibbs are all in the league’s top-25 possession winners, with more than 26 per game each, while the Lions have no-one in that bracket. Judd is also leading the competition for contested possessions (115), while Simon Black is 15th (88), despite missing one match.
And the winner is ...
Six weeks ago if you said the Lions could beat Carlton without their top two ruckmen and their two best key defenders, you would have been run out of town. But Mitch Clark’s development in the ruck and the team defence led by under-rated Joel Macdonald has seen the Lions maintain their momentum. The midfield match-up of Black, Power, Rich and co against Judd, Murphy and Gibbs will be worth the price of admission alone. The twin threats of Brown and Bradshaw look a tough match-up for the Blues and throw in the increased goal scoring spread from the Lions and they should have just enough to sneak over the line at home.
Lions by 13.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the club
