THE BRISBANE Lions have selected a fourth debutant of the year for what Tim Notting expects to be a stern test against Adelaide at the Gabba on Saturday night.
The Lions made three changes to the side which went down to the Western Bulldogs in round 12, including Tom Collier, Michael Rischitelli and Robbie Copeland in place of Jason Roe (hamstring), Matthew Leuenberger and Cheynee Stiller (both omitted).
Mobile defender Collier will become the third of the Lions' 2007 draft crop to debut.
If Notting's prediction is right, the Tasmanian product could make his first appearance in a pressure-cooker atmosphere.
Adelaide have done well up here before – last year they beat us quite convincingly and the year before they won at the Gabba as well," Notting said.
"They are a very well-drilled team with plenty of experience and they all play for each other, which is partly what makes them such tough opposition.
"We'll have to be on top of our game."
The Crows included Nick Gill, Brett Burton and Brent Reilly to replace Jonathon Griffin, David Mackay and Andy Otten.
Brisbane Lions
B: Josh Drummond, Daniel Merrett, Joel Patfull
HB: Jared Brennan, Joel Macdonald, Troy Selwood
C: Anthony Corrie, Simon Black, Tim Notting
HF: Michael Rischitelli, Jonathan Brown, Justin Sherman
F: Rhan Hooper, Mitch Clark, Travis Johnstone
Foll: Jamie Charman, Luke Power, Jed Adcock
I/C: Tom Collier, Ashley McGrath, Robert Copeland, James Polkinghorne
EMG: Albert Proud, Lachlan Henderson, Scott Harding
Adelaide
B: Graham Johncock, Ben Rutten, Nathan Bassett
HB: Andrew McLeod, Nathan Bock, Michael Doughty
C: Nathan van Berlo, Scott Thompson, Chris Knights
HF: Richard Douglas, Nick Gill, Bernie Vince
F: Jason Porplyzia, Kurt Tippett, Brett Burton
Foll: Ivan Maric, Simon Goodwin, Tyson Edwards
I/C: Robert Shirley, Scott Stevens, Luke Jericho, Brent Reilly
EMG: Brad Symes, Patrick Dangerfield, Trent Hentschel
On the punt:
The Lions aren't offering too much value as $1.40 head-to-head favourites, so the $2.15 for a win of 39 or fewer points might prove more attractive. Adelaide's propensity for playing tight defence means a combined goal tally of 19-21 ($8.50) and 22-24 ($6) might also be worth a flutter.
Jonathan Brown's Brownlow Medal price has drifted since the start of the campaign, but if he can produce a last 10 weeks to match that of last season, a current quote of $23 (and $6.50 a place) might be pretty generous.
Key match-up:
Jonathan Brown (Lions) v Ben Rutten and/or Nathan Bock (Adelaide): Plenty of questions surrounding this match-up, with the Crows potentially double-teaming Brown or going it single-handed with either Bock or Rutten. Bock played Buddy Franklin straight-up last week, while Rutten has matched up on Brown in the past. Whatever the case, if Brown can escape his marker(s) and feature prominently on the scoreboard, it will go a long way towards a Lions victory. Similarly, Mitch Clark needs to provide a threat against the key Crows defender who doesn't get the job on Brown.
Odds and sods:
* Come September it will be 10 years since the Crows made it two flags on the trot. It will also be five years since the Lions won their historic hat-trick of premierships. Of the Crows side that beat North Melbourne in the 1998 decider, only three remain at the club – Simon Goodwin, Andrew McLeod and Tyson Edwards, all of whom will play on Saturday night. Six of the Lions' 2003 premiership side will be in action – Simon Black, Luke Power, Jonathan Brown, Robbie Copeland, Ash McGrath and Jamie Charman.
* After having only 11 debutants over the last three completed seasons (second-lowest in the league), the Crows have already fielded five newcomers in 2008 – including Queensland product Kurt Tippett. The Lions, by contrast, had a competition-high 26 debutants from 2005-2007.
* Brown and Bock may well end up playing on each other at some stage, but the pair's style of play could barely be more different. Both have taken 94 marks this year, equal seventh in the league. However, only eight of Bock's have been contested, compared to 22 for Brown. Brown also has the edge in contested possessions (70-58), while Bock dominates the uncontested possessions (217-100).
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the club.
