THE LIONS will take an unchanged side and no shortage of confidence into Saturday night’s crunch game with the Kangaroos at the Gabba, but they won’t make the mistake of underestimating Dean Laidley-and his team.
The Lions go into the match on a high after their 93-point thrashing of arch-rivals and finals aspirant Collingwood, their fourth win on the trot.
But assistant coach Justin Leppitsch says the Lions won’t be lulled into a false sense of security by the fact the second-placed Kangaroos are the archetypal “unfashionable” side.
”I think a lot of teams always underestimated the Kangaroos, and I reckon it still happens to an extent,” Leppitsch said.
“Because they aren’t generally a highly promoted club and because they aren’t in the media a great deal, they tend to fly under the radar a bit.
”You don’t necessarily see them on the TV as much as, say, Essendon or Collingwood. In some ways, like attracting members, it’s probably a bit of a weakness for them, but playing-wise it’s probably a strength.
”But they are a very good side and we’re very aware of that. They are clear second on the ladder.”
The Kangaroos, who beat Hawthorn by 37 points in Launceston last weekend, have made only the one change, bringing in star midfielder Daniel Wells for Leigh Brown.
BRISBANE LIONS
B: Joel Macdonald, Daniel Merrett, Jason Roe
HB: Jed Adcock, Josh Drummond, Joel Patfull
C: Tim Notting, Nigel Lappin, Cheynee Stiller
HF: Wayde Mills, Jonathan Brown, Troy Selwood
F: Rhan Hooper, Matthew Leuenberger, Jared Brennan
FOLL: Jamie Charman, Simon Black, Luke Power
I/C: Ashley McGrath, Colm Begley, Robert Copeland, Michael Rischitelli
EMG: Matthew Moody, Mitchell Clark, Scott Harding
KANGAROOS
B: Shannon Watt, Michael Firrito, Glenn Archer
HB: Daniel Pratt, Jesse Smith, Jess Sinclair
C: Brady Rawlings, Daniel Harris, Shannon Grant
HF: Brent Harvey, David Hale, Daniel Wells
F: Corey Jones, Drew Petrie, Scott McMahon
FOLL: Hamish McIntosh, Adam Simpson, Andrew Swallow
I/C: Kasey Green, Aaron Edwards, Eddie Sansbury, Djaran Whyman
EMG: Leigh Brown, Ed Lower, Lindsay Thomas
On the punt
The Lions might not be underestimating the Roos but punters are very confident about the chances of Leigh Matthews’ team. The Lions, fresh off four wins, are listed at $1.64 in UNiTAB betting; the Kangaroos, with five straight victories and 12 win from their last 14 outings, are $2.18.
Lions fans looking for value might well take an interest in the odds for the round’s highest-scoring team – after kicking 47 goals over the last two weeks, the Lions are at an attractive $7.50.
Simon Black’s Brownlow Medal price tightened to $16 last week after his 30 possessions against Collingwood. Geelong’s Gary Ablett remains favourite at an amazingly short $1.85. Jonathan Brown is still atop the Coleman Medal betting at $3.25, narrowly ahead of Fremantle’s Matthew Pavlich.
Key match-up
Joel Patfull (Lions) v Corey Jones (Kangaroos) – Patfull has stopped Collingwood’s Travis Cloke and Melbourne’s Russell Robertson in the past month and appears odds-on to get the job on Jones, who kicked seven goals last weekend. The former Port Adelaide rookie was originally recruited to the Gabba as a tall defender and his efforts during the Lions’ four-game winning streak have been exemplary. His strong spoiling and impeccable timing could be crucial again on Saturday night.
Odds and sods
# The Lions kicked more than 20 goals in a game only twice in 2006. The 25 in last week’s win over Collingwood took their tally of 20-plus matches for 2007 to three. The last time the Lions kicked 20 goals in a game against the Kangaroos was in Round 22 of 2004 at the Gabba, when a score of 26.114 (170) helped them to a 113-point victory – the fourth-biggest in club history.
# Kangaroos inclusion Wells and Lion Jared Brennan were taken with the No. 2 and No. 3 picks of the 2002 AFL National Draft. Brendon Goddard went at No. 1 to St Kilda. Wells entered 2007 with 84 games to his credit, but Brennan, drafted into a team that had just won a second straight premiership and was plagued by injuries, started the year with only 36. This season the pair’s fortunes have reversed. Brennan kicked a career-high seven goals last week and has 16 games for the year. Wells has battled knee problems and has only 10 to date.
# The last time the two clubs met, in Round 4, the Lions were 2-1 and third, and the Kangaroos were 0-3 and 13th.
# Last year the Lions had an AFL-low 4341 kicks – an average of 197 a game. In the past four games they have averaged 205 but, more importantly, have kept their opponents to an average of only 188.
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
