The numbers say Brisbane Lions Coach Chris Fagan might just be right.
Certainly, Fagan’s description of Alex Witherden’s numbers as “pretty extraordinary” on Monday was justified yesterday when he won the Round 9 nomination for the AFL Rising Star Award.
And after further investigation, the numbers suggest Witherden will be right in the mix to add to the Club’s already rich history in the prestigious award.
Witherden has averaged 22.89 possessions per game through 18 games - more than 23 of the 25 overall winners.
Only Nathan Buckley, the inaugural Rising Star winner playing with the Brisbane Bears in 1993, and Rhys Palmer, who won the award playing with Fremantle in 2008, had a higher possessions-per-game average at the time they were crowned.
Buckley averaged 22.90ppg at the time, and Palmer averaged 23.10ppg.
Furthermore, only three other winners had averaged more than 20.00ppg at the time of their Rising Star win - Paul Hasleby averaged 21.38ppg for Fremantle when he won in 2000, Dyson Heppell averaged 21.43ppg for Essendon in 2011, and Jaeger O’Meara averaged 21.64ppg for Gold Coast in 2013.
And Witherden, whose AFL debut last year was delayed by the lingering effects of a broken leg suffered in his 2016 draft year, still has 13 home-and-away games this season to boost his numbers.
He would only need to average the 24 possessions he had in Sunday’s win over Hawthorn at the Gabba which earned him the nomination to leapfrog Buckley and Palmer and go to the top of the list.
In nine games last year Witherden’s possession count read an impressive 20-29-21-28-22-28-19-18-27 and this year he’s gone 21-24-20-27-27-27-17-18-24.
While numbers are certainly not the only determining factor in deciding such an award, they are an undeniable guide to the quality of the young defender.
The bookmakers and the punters certainly think so, with Witherden, Adelaide’s Tom Doedee and Collingwood’s Sam Murray the clear top three fancies for the award with all the major betting outlets.
Witherden’s stellar game in the Lions’ breakthrough win over the Hawks saw him become just the 11th player in AFL history and the second Brisbane player after triple premiership star Luke Power to earn two nominations.
He qualifies again this year because he met the criteria again, being under 21 and having played no more than 10 AFL games as at 1 January.
If the ex-Geelong Falcons defender does win the overall award he would be the ninth player to do so in his second season in the AFL, having not played enough games in his first season to be discounted.
Second-year winners have been Hawthorn’s Nick Holland (1995), North’s Byron Pickett (1998), St Kilda’s Nick Riewoldt (2002), Hawthorn’s Sam Mitchell (2003), Melbourne’s Jared Rivers (2004), Port’s Danyle Pearce (2006), Sydney’s Dan Hannebery (2010) and Adelaide’s Daniel Talia (2012).
Witherden’s nomination is the Lions’ first in 2018 and continues the Club’s proud history in the prestigious award, widely regarded as the Brownlow Medal for youngsters.
Already Brisbane
Sydney is next best with three, followed by Essendon, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Melbourne, Port Adelaide and St Kilda each with two. Adelaide, Geelong, Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Richmond and West Coast have one winner, and Carlton, Collingwood, GWS and the Western Bulldogs are yet to win it.
In total, 41 Brisbane players have won 43 Rising Star nominations, including two each to Power and Witherden.
Brisbane nominees have been:-
1993 – Nathan Buckley, Nathan Chapman
1994 – Chris Scott, Matthew Clarke
1995 – Steven Lawrence
1997 – Daniel Bradshaw
1998 – Luke Power
1999 – Shane O’Bree, Simon Black, Luke Power (2), Tim Notting
2000 – Beau McDonald
2001 – Damien Cupido, Robert Copeland
2002 – Jamie Charman
2003 – Jared Brennan, Ash McGrath
2004 – Richard Hadley
2005 – Justin Sherman, Jed Adcock, Troy Selwood, Anthony Corrie
2006 – Michael Rischitelli, Cheynee Stiller, Matthew Moody
2007 – Cameron Wood, Mitch Clark
2008 – Bradd Dalziell
2009 – Daniel Rich
2010 – Todd Banfield, Tom Rockliff, Jack Redden
2012 – Clay Beams, Mitch Golby
2013 – Sam Mayes
2014 – James Aish, Lewis Taylor, Darcy Gardiner
2015 - Harris Andrews
2017 – Eric Hipwood, Hugh McCluggage, Alex Witherden
2018 – Alex Witherden (2)
Taylor won the overall award in 2014 with 39 votes from the Western Bulldogs’ Marcus Bontempelli (38), North Melbourne’s Luke McDonald (32) and teammate James Aish (19).
Rich took the overall prize in 2009 with 45 votes from Adelaide’s Andy Ottens (30) and Essendon’s Tate Pears (28).
Interestingly, in the same year Dayne Beams, then playing with Collingwood, was fourth with 10 votes ahead of Fremantle’s Stephen Hill (9), GWS co-captain Callan Ward (9) and Patrick Dangerfield, then playing with Adelaide, on four.
The final votes when Buckley and Scott won the first two Rising Star awards were not disclosed.
Seven other Brisbane players have finished top five in the final voting, which was made public from 1995 onwards.
Daniel Bradshaw was equal fifth behind Port Adelaide’s Michael Wilson in 1997, and Simon Black was third behind Sydney’s Adam Goodes and Adelaide’s Brett Burton in 1999.
Beau McDonald was third behind Hasleby and Essendon’s Adam Ramanauskas in 2000, and Richard Hadley was third behind Melbourne pair Rivers and Aaron Davey in 2004.
Jed Adcock, former Captain turned Assistant Coach, was fifth in 2005 when Richmond’s Brett Deledio was the overall winner, and Tom Rockliff, another former captain, was third overall behind Sydney’s Hannebery and Melbourne’s Tom Scully in 2010.
Eric Hipwood was fifth overall last year when Essendon’s Andrew McGrath won from Hawthorn’s Ryan Burton, Port Adelaide’s Sam Powell-Pepper and Carlton’s Charlie Curnow.
Other overall winners have been West Coast’s Ben Cousins (1996), St Kilda’s Justin Koschitzke (2001), Geelong’s Joel Selwood (2007), Melbourne’s Jesse Hogan (2015) and Sydney’s Callum Mills (2016).
