WILL GEELONG advance and earn a crack at back-to-back premierships?
Will the reigning premier face Hawthorn on the last Saturday in September, as many expect?
Or will the Western Bulldogs or St Kilda bob up to throw a spanner in the works of either or both of the top two sides from the home-and-away season?
The AFL finals series reaches the preliminary final stage this weekend and lions.com.au takes a closer look at each of the big games.
First preliminary final: Geelong (1st after home and away season) v Western Bulldogs (3rd), MCG, Friday, 7.40pm.
Head to head: Geelong 88 wins, Western Bulldogs 54 wins, two draws
Match-up to watch: Jimmy Bartel (Geelong) v Matthew Boyd (Bulldogs) – any number of Bulldogs could come under consideration for this job, but Boyd, who was in sparkling touch against the Sydney Swans last week, might be the most natural fit. Whoever gets the job, they’ll have their work cut out for them. Brownlow Medallist Bartel was red hot against St Kilda in the first week of the finals, with 34 disposals and a pair of goals.
The breakdown: Can anyone beat Geelong, let alone a Bulldogs side that has largely spluttered its way into a preliminary final? Was last week’s win over the Swans the start of a Dogs renaissance or just a reflection of an opposing side that had reached the end of the line? Those questions will be answered on Friday night but it’s fair to say the Dogs have battled since succumbing to the Cats by 61 points in their round 16 showdown
Prediction: The Bulldogs improved last week but not enough to trouble Geelong. Though weakened by the loss of Paul Chapman (hamstring), the Cats should win by five goals.
Second preliminary final: Hawthorn (2nd) v St Kilda (4th), MCG, Saturday, 7pm.
TAB Sportsbet market: Hawthorn $1.30, St Kilda $3.30
Head to head: Hawthorn 73 wins, St Kilda 70, one draw
Match-up to watch: Lance Franklin (Hawthorn) v Nick Riewoldt (St Kilda) – okay, so Franklin and Riewoldt are highly unlikely to play on each other (although the Saints skipper is one of the few players athletically gifted enough to go with the gun Hawk). But whichever side gets the most out of its star forward is likely to be looking at a grand final berth. For the Saints to win, Riewoldt would most likely need to replicate his five goal haul against Collingwood last week. Five goals or more from Buddy, on the other hand, would go a long way towards ensuring a Hawthorn victory.
The breakdown: Taking into account the manner in which the Hawks disposed of the Bulldogs in the first week of September, a Saints upset looks unlikely. But Ross Lyon’s side was impressively efficient against the Magpies last weekend and also has the runs on the board against Hawthorn this year. The inclusion of Luke Ball following a lengthy absence with a hamstring injury is good news for St Kilda.
Prediction: On paper this appears a closer match than the Friday night game. Still, with Franklin up forward, the Hawks should have too much firepower and win by three goals.
The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of the club.
