A Lions win over Carlton could come with an AFLW goalscoring record. This week’s deep dive into the numbers and statistics shows that the two-time premiers are finding new ways to improve their game.

Correcting the record

Brisbane has won nearly 70% of its AFLW matches, Carlton just 44%, but head-to-head, the record is two wins apiece plus a draw. The Blues lowered the Lions’ colours twice during the rebuild of 2019 and 2020, but the teams have met just once during Brisbane’s 2020s resurgence. Saturday gives Brisbane a chance to swing the ledger in their favour.

Last time they met

The one Brisbane v Carlton match not played at IKON Park was at Carrara on a Tuesday night in January before a public holiday. The 814 fans able to get there saw Orla O’Dwyer present a masterclass in turning defence into attack. O’Dwyer gained over 500 metres (539) for the first time in her career, making three rebound-50s, six inside-50s and four tackles inside 50, all of which led to her being involved in six of Brisbane’s 18 scores. Any time Carlton tried attacking along the other wing, they ran into Jade Ellenger who took what is still a career high seven marks. Brisbane won by 35 and O’Dwyer, who this week misses her first match since March 2022, won her first set of three Best and Fairest votes.

Keeping the scoreboard ticking over

No team in 2024 has kept the scoreboard moving more than Brisbane. Historically, the Lions haven’t been the kind of team to blow opponents away with one huge scoring burst, but in the 24 quarters of football that the Lions have played this year, they’ve scored at least one goal in 21 of them. The last intra-sirenic period in which Brisbane didn’t score a goal was the second term against Melbourne back in week 2. The third and fourth quarters that day, plus perfect records against the Magpies, Bulldogs, Eagles and Crows give the Lions 18 consecutive quarters with a goal, equal fourth on the all-time list.

A goal in each quarter against Carlton would give Brisbane the AFLW record. Given that Carlton has conceded at least one goal in 20 out of 24 quarters this season, and that the Lions demand a four-quarter effort from themselves in every game anyway, the opportunity to break Melbourne’s record is there for the taking.

Everybody look at your hands

Have you noticed how much Brisbane has been handballing this year? Not many people have. Back in season 7, the Lions averaged 72 handballs a match. Last year, they increased it to 85. This year, it’s 105. The average number of handballs across the whole competition has also increased, but only from 78 to 89. Brisbane has gone from 6 under average to 16 above it.

And which players are responsible for increasing Brisbane’s handball numbers? Short answer: most of them. Thirteen Lions have increased their handball output from last season, some prolific like Ally Anderson (up from 11 per game to 13.2), some occasional like Taylor Smith (up from 1.7 to 3), and some radical like Cathy Svarc (doubling from 3.9 to 7.8).

Most notably, Jennifer Dunne and Poppy Boltz have become very confident handballing their way out from the last line of defence. Boltz is punching the Sherrin 4.2 times a match (compared with 2.7 last year); Dunne is handballing like she invented it - 2.2 handballs a game last year; 6.3 this year.

All this ovoid thumping has had two tangible effects: Brisbane is the most difficult team to tackle; and turns the ball over the least. The Lions’ lead in the turnover statistics is tiny, 317 turnovers in 2024 with GWS on 319 and Richmond on 320. In the tackle stats, it’s huge. Lions are being tackled an average of 59 times a match in 2024; the next best is being caught 65 times. The Lions are showing that the best way to keep the ball in hand is to let it go by hand.

What’s Adelaide got to do, got to do with it?

Brisbane’s victory over Adelaide at Brighton Homes Arena last Sunday was thrilling for many reasons, not least of which is that the Crows have been the one team to have more AFLW success than Brisbane. There is one effect, however, of playing Adelaide that may provide the Lions with the edge against Carlton.

Eight of the last nine teams to play against Adelaide have won their following match, most of them either upset victories or wins by larger margins than expected. When a team needs to lift its game to face the Crows, it’s often bad news for that team’s next opponents. So far this year, Port Adelaide’s 40-point win over the Bulldogs, Hawthorn’s 57-point defeat of St Kilda, and Essendon’s shock thumping of Melbourne by 65 points have all come after playing Adelaide. The only recent exception was when the Kangaroos beat Adelaide in last year’s Preliminary Final before going down to the Lions in the decider. It's hard to argue that Brisbane could have had a better preparation for facing Carlton than a tough match against the auld enemy.

The Crow Carry-on

Upcoming player milestones

Shannon Campbell has reached the milestones of 700 disposals, 200 rebound-50s and 300 intercept possessions this season. Now comes the turn of fellow Original Lion Bre Koenen to bring up a big set of significant digits. The skipper begins the game with career figures of 894 disposals, 397 contested possessions, 149 rebound-50s and 48 contested marks. Whatever the players use to reward career stat achievements, it might be an idea to have four of them ready.

Jade Ellenger‘s ability to turn oppositions around sees her begin Saturday night with 197 career intercept possessions, while Belle Dawes needs two marks to hit a personal century and one inside-50 to bring up a 150.