For Brisbane to equal its longest ever AFLW winning streak, all it needs to do is beat the team on the bottom of the ladder. Easy, right? This week’s deep dive into the numbers and statistics show that the Lions can’t take a win over its little sister for granted.

Brisbane has won its last six matches in a row, is just half a win off the league lead, and has a settled side with only one first choice player unavailable. Facing them this week is a side on the bottom of the ladder who has never beaten them. Two problems: that side is the Gold Coast SUNS who want to beat the Lions more than any other team; and Brisbane is a club so uncomfortable with being favourites, its men’s team can make every one of its fans nervous by leading a finals match 60-nil.

How one-sided is the history of AFLW matches between Brisbane and Gold Coast? The first time they met, back in February 2020, both sides finished with 4.4-28. That score remains the Lions’ lowest and the Suns’ highest in the five AFLW Qclashes. Since that draw, Brisbane has outscored Gold Coast 42 goals to six. The closest match was last year at People First Stadium when Brisbane won by a mere 36 points and Courtney Hodder invented self-propelled human flight.

The Maroon Zone

Brisbane’s forward line is humming. Taylor Smith has scored in every match this year, Dakota Davidson has finished a match without a goal just once, and the usual suspects of Courtney Hodder and the Svarcs are locking the ball in the front 50 when required. The result is that Brisbane has scored a goal in each of its last 22 quarters, a new AFLW record.

Brisbane leads the comp for inside-50s (37.6 per match) and for effective inside-50s (18.1 per match). Individually, no Lion is going inside forward 50 more often than Sophie Conway. Back in season 6, Conway produced a personal best 37 inside-50s. This year, she’s already up to 36.

The Lions record for most inside-50s in a season (including finals) is 49, jointly held by Emily Bates in season 6 and Orla O’Dwyer in season 7. If Conway maintains her current rate, she’ll pass that figure in week 9. Even if teams manage to shut her down, both Ally Anderson (3.71) and Belle Dawes (3.29) are on track for their most prolific seasons for inside-50s. Cathy Svarc probably won’t match her tally from 2023 but last week equalled the Lions’ record for inside-50s in a match (8) without being noticed.

Maintaining the quality of those forward entries will require the Lions to acknowledge that the Suns defence is vastly improved from the one that collapsed against Geelong. Meara Girvan is in career-best form averaging seven intercept possessions a game and regularly winning contested marks against taller forwards. Daisy D’Arcy may move onto the ball but is sixth in the league for rebound-50s (5.1 per match). And Niamh McLaughlin, named in midfield but regularly seen down back, has scythed her way out of defence so often this year that she is second in the comp for bounces (16).

The Red Zone

At the other end of the park, the Gold Coast attack showed signs against Essendon that they are working out how to finish off their attacking raids. Tall forwards Jac Dupuy and Tara Bohanna began the year slowly but are starting to reel in the contested marks again. Dupuy scored twice against the Lions in 2023 and may find herself in a miniature battle of the Coral Sea with fellow Cairnsite Poppy Boltz. Alternatively, Jennifer Dunne may be the better match-up on Dupuy as she has been spoiling like a grandparent at Christmas with 21 for the year.

One area for the Lions to exploit might be the Suns’ inability to lock teams in their own defence. While Brisbane’s five named forwards average a combined 17 tackles per match, that figure for the Suns is just 11.5. Bre Koenen produced 10 rebound-50s last week, equalling Kate Lutkins’ club record from the 2021 Grand Final. If the Suns can’t get in Koenen’s way, that record could be in jeopardy. (Incidentally, Koenen also passed 150 rebound-50s in her career, overtaking Lutkins into second place for the Lions behind Shannon Campbell (209), as well as 900 disposals and 400 contested possessions; ‘twas a big day.)

Between the Maroon and Red Zones… possibly the Crimson Zone

Think of something for which you would gladly wait in a queue for hours. Maybe Grand Final tickets, a selfie with Taylor Swift, an Ekka strawberry sundae - that’s how footy stats nerds feel about an Ally Anderson v Charlie Rowbottom match-up.

These two are the best at what they do. For clearances, Rowbottom is no. 1 and Anderson is no. 2. When restricted to centre clearances, Anderson is no. 1 and Rowbottom is no. 2. Rowbottom has the most disposals this season, but Anderson has the record for most disposals in a match. Some fans at Brighton Homes Arena will forget about the scoreline and just make tally marks every time Anderson or Rowbottom touch the ball. Happiness comes in many forms.

For everyone else who does care about the scoreline, the primary difference between the sides is again tackling. Despite Carlton’s best efforts last Saturday, Brisbane still leads the competition for fewest tackles conceded per match (61.3). Conversely, the Suns have made the fewest tackles per match this year with 62.1. Charlie Rowbottom and Lucy Single are both in the top 10 for average tackles with 8 and 7.8 respectively, but Brisbane has Belle Dawes (6.4), Courtney Hodder (6.4), Cathy Svarc (6.3), Sophie Conway (6) and Ally Anderson (5.9) all averaging more than the next Sun on the list. If Brisbane can clear the ball away from the contest, the evidence so far this year is that they could have plenty of space to run.

Possible milestones

Cathy Svarc needs ten disposals this week to become the 7^th Lion to reach 700, while Tahlia Hickie will become the lucky 13^th to 500 career disposals with just six on Saturday.

Taylor Smith and Belle Dawes are both in sight of 100 career tackles, Dawes begins the Qclash on 95 with Smith on 99. Poppy Boltz needs three hits to reach her half-century.

Jade Ellenger has been averaging four intercept possessions this season; just two more will make her the seventh Lion to reach 200.