LAST TIME: Brisbane Lions 17.9 (111) d Gold Coast 6.10 (46), round 4, 2012, at the Gabba
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The fourth edition of the Queensland Clash is already different for a number of reasons. The Suns are coming in as winners for the first time after Karmichael Hunt's dramatic after-the-siren goal lifted them over the Tigers last Saturday, while it will also be the first time the teams have met on the Suns' home turf. Suspensions to Daniel Rich (Lions) and Danny Stanley (Suns) has robbed the match of some key players, but a near capacity crowd at Metricon Stadium should see a fast, open game of footy with both teams showing plenty of attacking flair in recent weeks.
THE FOUR POINTS
GOLD COAST
1. Gold Coast has looked extremely flat the past two times they've played the Lions. Throw in an average losing margin of 83 points the week following a win last year and it's not a good recipe for Saturday. But surely against their M1 rivals in front of a home crowd for the first time, there'll be no such lethargy. The Suns must show last week's win against Richmond was no flash-in-the-pan.
2. There are signs some young Suns who struggled early in the season are now finding their feet. After turning heads in their debut seasons, Trent McKenzie, Brandon Matera and Zac Smith all struggled early in 2012. But McKenzie's 26 touches against Richmond, Matera's 20 - including the incredibly composed pass to Hunt for the match-winner - and Smith's athleticism in the ruck, show these three have their best footy of the season ahead of them.
3. How to stop Jonathan Brown? Aside from a quiet match last week against the Saints, the Lions' skipper has been in terrific form in the past eight weeks. While Matthew Warnock is the obvious match-up from the depleted defensive unit, Gold Coast might look at clogging up Brown's space with a spare defender.
4. The law of averages says captain Gary Ablett is in for a big one. In three matches against the Lions Ablett has racked up 20, 28 and 33 disposals - well below his average. Just as telling is the fact he's kicked just one goal and done little damage forward of centre in any match. The Brownlow medalist doesn't let opponents draw even with him too often, and Andrew Raines could be in for a long night.
BRISBANE LIONS
1. Last week's loss against St Kilda all but ruined the Lions' finals aspirations, and they have to guard against a letdown this week. After leading the Lions to a 6-9 record with a much-improved brand of footy, coach Michael Voss has implored his team to finish the season strongly, and that starts with a win against its neighbours.
2. The Lions' small defenders were exposed by St Kilda last week, with Ahmed Saad (four goals), Stephen Milne (three), Arryn Siposs (two) and David Armitage (two) running riot. In the absence of injured regulars Mitch Golby and Ash McGrath, the likes of Jed Adcock, Ryan Harwood and Elliot Yeo will again have their hands full with Matera, Aaron Hall and rotating midfielders Ablett, Josh Caddy and David Swallow.
3. Veteran ruckman Ben Hudson came to the Lions expecting to be a back-up to Matthew Leuenberger and mentor to Billy Longer. But the former Adelaide and Western Bulldogs big man has been a saviour of sorts for the Lions. Against St Kilda's Ben McEvoy he had 23 disposals, 31 hit-outs and eight clearances, but faces a different battle altogether with athletic Zac Smith this week.
4. Despite matching the Saints in contested possessions (+2) and overall disposals (+7), the Lions were badly beaten in the tackle count (70-57). Usual suspects Jack Redden (nine), Raines (nine) and Zorko (eight) were terrific in that department, but they'll need more mates this week to match an energetic Suns team who plays its most consistent football at home.
AFL.com.au prediction: Brisbane Lions by 20 points
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL
