Who: Carlton vs Brisbane Lions
Where: Ikon Park
When: Saturday 5th October at 7:15pm (local)
Gates Open: TBC, check your ticket for your entry gate.

Weekly Notices → None at the moment, check back later! 

Tickets → On sale here!

Patrons attending IKON Park are encouraged to use public transport.

Address → 400 Royal Parade, Carlton North VIC 3054

Tram → No. 19 Tram (City-North Coburg) runs from the city to Royal Parade Walker St / Stop 16, then 3 minutes walk to Ikon Park. 

Train → Take the Upfield Line to Royal Park Station, then 13 minutes walk to Ikon Park. 

Bus  → Route 123 Bus to Walker St / Stop 16, then 3 minutes walk from Ikon Park.

Disability Parking → 4 Accessibility parking spots provided in the main carpark. Accessibility seating located at Gate 5 & Gate 6. Lift access into Pavilion function spaces.

Street Parking → Northern Lawn provided for public parking (Cost - $10), Royal Parade parking (Cost – Free on weekends), Street parking on Garton street & Bowen crescent available, Barkly square (3 hour parking).

Watch → Free to air on Channel 7Mate or stream on Fox Footy or Kayo. Broadcast kicking off at 7:00pm.

A Lions win over Carlton could come with an AFLW goalscoring record. This week’s deep dive into the numbers and statistics shows that the two-time premiers are finding new ways to improve their game.

Correcting the record

Brisbane has won nearly 70% of its AFLW matches, Carlton just 44%, but head-to-head, the record is two wins apiece plus a draw. The Blues lowered the Lions’ colours twice during the rebuild of 2019 and 2020, but the teams have met just once during Brisbane’s 2020s resurgence. Saturday gives Brisbane a chance to swing the ledger in their favour.

Last time they met

The one Brisbane v Carlton match not played at IKON Park was at Carrara on a Tuesday night in January before a public holiday. The 814 fans able to get there saw Orla O’Dwyer present a masterclass in turning defence into attack. O’Dwyer gained over 500 metres (539) for the first time in her career, making three rebound-50s, six inside-50s and four tackles inside 50, all of which led to her being involved in six of Brisbane’s 18 scores. Any time Carlton tried attacking along the other wing, they ran into Jade Ellenger who took what is still a career high seven marks. Brisbane won by 35 and O’Dwyer, who this week misses her first match since March 2022, won her first set of three Best and Fairest votes.

Keeping the scoreboard ticking over

No team in 2024 has kept the scoreboard moving more than Brisbane. Historically, the Lions haven’t been the kind of team to blow opponents away with one huge scoring burst, but in the 24 quarters of football that the Lions have played this year, they’ve scored at least one goal in 21 of them. The last intra-sirenic period in which Brisbane didn’t score a goal was the second term against Melbourne back in week 2. The third and fourth quarters that day, plus perfect records against the Magpies, Bulldogs, Eagles and Crows give the Lions 18 consecutive quarters with a goal, equal fourth on the all-time list.

A goal in each quarter against Carlton would give Brisbane the AFLW record. Given that Carlton has conceded at least one goal in 20 out of 24 quarters this season, and that the Lions demand a four-quarter effort from themselves in every game anyway, the opportunity to break Melbourne’s record is there for the taking.

Everybody look at your hands

Have you noticed how much Brisbane has been handballing this year? Not many people have. Back in season 7, the Lions averaged 72 handballs a match. Last year, they increased it to 85. This year, it’s 105. The average number of handballs across the whole competition has also increased, but only from 78 to 89. Brisbane has gone from 6 under average to 16 above it.

And which players are responsible for increasing Brisbane’s handball numbers? Short answer: most of them. Thirteen Lions have increased their handball output from last season, some prolific like Ally Anderson (up from 11 per game to 13.2), some occasional like Taylor Smith (up from 1.7 to 3), and some radical like Cathy Svarc (doubling from 3.9 to 7.8).

Most notably, Jennifer Dunne and Poppy Boltz have become very confident handballing their way out from the last line of defence. Boltz is punching the Sherrin 4.2 times a match (compared with 2.7 last year); Dunne is handballing like she invented it - 2.2 handballs a game last year; 6.3 this year.

All this ovoid thumping has had two tangible effects: Brisbane is the most difficult team to tackle; and turns the ball over the least. The Lions’ lead in the turnover statistics is tiny, 317 turnovers in 2024 with GWS on 319 and Richmond on 320. In the tackle stats, it’s huge. Lions are being tackled an average of 59 times a match in 2024; the next best is being caught 65 times. The Lions are showing that the best way to keep the ball in hand is to let it go by hand.

What’s Adelaide got to do, got to do with it?

Brisbane’s victory over Adelaide at Brighton Homes Arena last Sunday was thrilling for many reasons, not least of which is that the Crows have been the one team to have more AFLW success than Brisbane. There is one effect, however, of playing Adelaide that may provide the Lions with the edge against Carlton.

Eight of the last nine teams to play against Adelaide have won their following match, most of them either upset victories or wins by larger margins than expected. When a team needs to lift its game to face the Crows, it’s often bad news for that team’s next opponents. So far this year, Port Adelaide’s 40-point win over the Bulldogs, Hawthorn’s 57-point defeat of St Kilda, and Essendon’s shock thumping of Melbourne by 65 points have all come after playing Adelaide. The only recent exception was when the Kangaroos beat Adelaide in last year’s Preliminary Final before going down to the Lions in the decider. It's hard to argue that Brisbane could have had a better preparation for facing Carlton than a tough match against the auld enemy.

The Crow Carry-on

Upcoming player milestones

Shannon Campbell has reached the milestones of 700 disposals, 200 rebound-50s and 300 intercept possessions this season. Now comes the turn of fellow Original Lion Bre Koenen to bring up a big set of significant digits. The skipper begins the game with career figures of 894 disposals, 397 contested possessions, 149 rebound-50s and 48 contested marks. Whatever the players use to reward career stat achievements, it might be an idea to have four of them ready.

Jade Ellenger‘s ability to turn oppositions around sees her begin Saturday night with 197 career intercept possessions, while Belle Dawes needs two marks to hit a personal century and one inside-50 to bring up a 150.

Brisbane's impressive form has rolled on with a dominant 55-point win over Carlton on Saturday evening.

Returning to the scene of its 2023 premiership for the first time since that day, the Lions enjoyed a 9.14 (68) to 1.7 (13) victory under the Ikon Park lights.

In the absence of Orla O'Dwyer on the wing, young-gun Charlie Mullins dominated the game for Brisbane, recording a personal-best 23 disposals and kicking a goal, while captain Breanna Koenen was reliable as ever down back, finishing with 16 disposals and six intercepts.

Carlton opted to send midfield bull Marianna Anthony to Lions star Ally Anderson, keeping the Brisbane gun to just 19 disposals, her fewest of the season to date, but she was still able to win a game-high nine clearances, proving her class even with close attention.

After a downpour during the warmup the rain cleared, but the deck was still soaked through, making conditions tricky especially early in the game. The Blues lived in their front half for much of the opening quarter due to this, bringing pressure around the ball and compounding the slippery Sherrin, forcing errors from a typically clean Lions outfit.

Despite that early territory win, Carlton couldn't make it count on the scoreboard. The home side got some good looks, but faded off target or failed to reach the required distance. It took until the 10-minute mark of the third quarter for the Blues to kick truly via Breann Moody.

Once the Lions settled, and found some calm with ball in hand, the floodgates opened. Belle Dawes (15 disposals, seven tackles) neatly kicked the first from a forward 50 stoppage and got her teammates up and about.

Carlton key defender Harriet Cordner (six intercepts, three tackles) refused to have her colours lowered, even with a relentless barrage of Brisbane attacks to contend with, while Keeley Sherar (27, six clearances) won plenty of ball through the middle of the ground.

But the Blues' best players were, unfortunately, not in attacking positions, so were simply charged with stemming the tide rather than turning it.

Connection between the home side's midfield and forward line was often found wanting, unable to spot up leading targets and instead booting long, high kicks to a congested goal square.

Some of this was due to the work of Natalie Grider (seven intercepts) and Poppy Boltz (six intercepts) off half-back, with the pair making life difficult for Carlton's forwards as they deftly intercepted the ball and turned it into attack.

Inaccurate Lions
While Brisbane made light work of Carlton, it didn't always finish its work in front of goal. It didn't hurt on Saturday evening, but inaccuracy has been a trend for the club this year, and no doubt something coach Craig Starcevich will be hoping to rectify heading into crunch time in the back half of the season. Sophie Conway has been the worst culprit, with 10 behinds for the season, but five of those did come in one game back in week five against West Coast. More positively, the Lions' spread in front of the big sticks was ominous, recording majors via eight different players.

Chucky on top
Last year Charlie Mullins became a premiership player at just 19, playing a crucial small-forward role for the Lions. Still a teenager, Mullins has taken her game to a whole new level with minutes up on the wing. Against Carlton, Mullins got to work. Clean in slippery conditions, she worked hard to offer the Lions some serious defensive coverage while also pressing forward to hit the scoreboard. Her opposition simply couldn't go with her, and it resulted in a career-best 23 disposals and six clearances for the night.

Up next
Both teams will now prepare for their Pride Round match next Saturday, with Brisbane heading home to Brighton Homes Arena to host Gold Coast in the sixth AFLW QClash, while Carlton will travel to Perth to face an up-and-about Fremantle at Fremantle Oval.

CARLTON                    0.2    0.5    1.5   1.7 (13)
BRISBANE                   1.4    5.8    6.11   9.14 (68)

GOALS 
Carlton: Moody
Brisbane: Hampson 2, Dawes, Smith, Hodder, Mullins, Davidson, Conway, C.Svarc,

BEST 
Carlton: Hill, Cordner, Guerin, Sherar, Finn
Brisbane: Koenen, Mullins, Dawes, Hickie, Anderson, Conway

INJURIES 
Carlton: Hendrie (foot soreness)
Brisbane: Nil

Crowd: 1,452 at Ikon Park