For Brisbane to equal its longest ever AFLW winning streak, all it needs to do is beat the team on the bottom of the ladder. Easy, right? This week’s deep dive into the numbers and statistics show that the Lions can’t take a win over its little sister for granted.

Brisbane has won its last six matches in a row, is just half a win off the league lead, and has a settled side with only one first choice player unavailable. Facing them this week is a side on the bottom of the ladder who has never beaten them. Two problems: that side is the Gold Coast SUNS who want to beat the Lions more than any other team; and Brisbane is a club so uncomfortable with being favourites, its men’s team can make every one of its fans nervous by leading a finals match 60-nil.

How one-sided is the history of AFLW matches between Brisbane and Gold Coast? The first time they met, back in February 2020, both sides finished with 4.4-28. That score remains the Lions’ lowest and the Suns’ highest in the five AFLW Qclashes. Since that draw, Brisbane has outscored Gold Coast 42 goals to six. The closest match was last year at People First Stadium when Brisbane won by a mere 36 points and Courtney Hodder invented self-propelled human flight.

The Maroon Zone

Brisbane’s forward line is humming. Taylor Smith has scored in every match this year, Dakota Davidson has finished a match without a goal just once, and the usual suspects of Courtney Hodder and the Svarcs are locking the ball in the front 50 when required. The result is that Brisbane has scored a goal in each of its last 22 quarters, a new AFLW record.

Brisbane leads the comp for inside-50s (37.6 per match) and for effective inside-50s (18.1 per match). Individually, no Lion is going inside forward 50 more often than Sophie Conway. Back in season 6, Conway produced a personal best 37 inside-50s. This year, she’s already up to 36.

The Lions record for most inside-50s in a season (including finals) is 49, jointly held by Emily Bates in season 6 and Orla O’Dwyer in season 7. If Conway maintains her current rate, she’ll pass that figure in week 9. Even if teams manage to shut her down, both Ally Anderson (3.71) and Belle Dawes (3.29) are on track for their most prolific seasons for inside-50s. Cathy Svarc probably won’t match her tally from 2023 but last week equalled the Lions’ record for inside-50s in a match (8) without being noticed.

Maintaining the quality of those forward entries will require the Lions to acknowledge that the Suns defence is vastly improved from the one that collapsed against Geelong. Meara Girvan is in career-best form averaging seven intercept possessions a game and regularly winning contested marks against taller forwards. Daisy D’Arcy may move onto the ball but is sixth in the league for rebound-50s (5.1 per match). And Niamh McLaughlin, named in midfield but regularly seen down back, has scythed her way out of defence so often this year that she is second in the comp for bounces (16).

The Red Zone

At the other end of the park, the Gold Coast attack showed signs against Essendon that they are working out how to finish off their attacking raids. Tall forwards Jac Dupuy and Tara Bohanna began the year slowly but are starting to reel in the contested marks again. Dupuy scored twice against the Lions in 2023 and may find herself in a miniature battle of the Coral Sea with fellow Cairnsite Poppy Boltz. Alternatively, Jennifer Dunne may be the better match-up on Dupuy as she has been spoiling like a grandparent at Christmas with 21 for the year.

One area for the Lions to exploit might be the Suns’ inability to lock teams in their own defence. While Brisbane’s five named forwards average a combined 17 tackles per match, that figure for the Suns is just 11.5. Bre Koenen produced 10 rebound-50s last week, equalling Kate Lutkins’ club record from the 2021 Grand Final. If the Suns can’t get in Koenen’s way, that record could be in jeopardy. (Incidentally, Koenen also passed 150 rebound-50s in her career, overtaking Lutkins into second place for the Lions behind Shannon Campbell (209), as well as 900 disposals and 400 contested possessions; ‘twas a big day.)

Between the Maroon and Red Zones… possibly the Crimson Zone

Think of something for which you would gladly wait in a queue for hours. Maybe Grand Final tickets, a selfie with Taylor Swift, an Ekka strawberry sundae - that’s how footy stats nerds feel about an Ally Anderson v Charlie Rowbottom match-up.

These two are the best at what they do. For clearances, Rowbottom is no. 1 and Anderson is no. 2. When restricted to centre clearances, Anderson is no. 1 and Rowbottom is no. 2. Rowbottom has the most disposals this season, but Anderson has the record for most disposals in a match. Some fans at Brighton Homes Arena will forget about the scoreline and just make tally marks every time Anderson or Rowbottom touch the ball. Happiness comes in many forms.

For everyone else who does care about the scoreline, the primary difference between the sides is again tackling. Despite Carlton’s best efforts last Saturday, Brisbane still leads the competition for fewest tackles conceded per match (61.3). Conversely, the Suns have made the fewest tackles per match this year with 62.1. Charlie Rowbottom and Lucy Single are both in the top 10 for average tackles with 8 and 7.8 respectively, but Brisbane has Belle Dawes (6.4), Courtney Hodder (6.4), Cathy Svarc (6.3), Sophie Conway (6) and Ally Anderson (5.9) all averaging more than the next Sun on the list. If Brisbane can clear the ball away from the contest, the evidence so far this year is that they could have plenty of space to run.

Possible milestones

Cathy Svarc needs ten disposals this week to become the 7^th Lion to reach 700, while Tahlia Hickie will become the lucky 13^th to 500 career disposals with just six on Saturday.

Taylor Smith and Belle Dawes are both in sight of 100 career tackles, Dawes begins the Qclash on 95 with Smith on 99. Poppy Boltz needs three hits to reach her half-century.

Jade Ellenger has been averaging four intercept possessions this season; just two more will make her the seventh Lion to reach 200.

Brisbane has held off a feisty Gold Coast to win Saturday's QClash by 16 points at a wet Brighton Homes Arena to remain in the top four.

From the outset the Suns were aggressive and challenged their more accomplished opponents with great pressure and swift ball movement, but the hosts hung on to win 6.8 (44) to 4.4 (28).

Gold Coast got within six points early in the final term before Dakota Davidson iced the game with a late mark and set shot from 20m.

The victory is Brisbane's seventh in succession and leaves Gold Coast winless with three games remaining.

The Lions had to pull out all the stops to win though, unable to crack the resolute Gold Coast defence despite having plenty of first-half opportunities.

Belle Dawes (27 disposals) and Ally Anderson (31) controlled the midfield battle before Charlie Rowbottom – who had 14 of her 21 touches after half-time – lifted to give her team some field position.

Ultimately, three goals to one in the second quarter made the difference for the premiers, who kicked just one goal after the main break as the heavens opened.

Taylor Smith extended her lead as the competition's leading goalkicker with two more, while Sophie Conway and Bre Koenen also excelled.

This was arguably the Suns' best performance of the season, winning the contested ball count and prepared to take the game on and challenge the Lions.

Gold Coast fired some opening-quarter warning shots on the back of two brilliant goals by impressive Taya Oliver.

Playing just her third game, Oliver was able to expertly use her body on both occasions and get goal side of her opponent, gathering ground balls and finishing cleverly.

At the other end, Smith was the only Lion that could capitalise on their hefty 16-6 inside 50 advantage, kicking goals following a holding-the-ball decision and then another just prior to quarter-time following a strong mark between two opponents.

The home team stretched its lead to 14 by the main break following goals to Sophie Conway, Courtney Hodder and Eleanor Hartill – the latter in spite of Gold Coast protests the ball had been touched after leaving Hartill's boot.

Brisbane's clearance dominance and ability to transition the ball into space was giving it a territorial advantage, but the Suns' defence was standing up to keep their team in the game.

Dynamic Dawes continues to climb

Playing her second season in a full-time midfield role, Belle Dawes had another fantastic game, winning the QClash Medal as the best player afield. With her midfield mate Ally Anderson (31) also finding lots of the footy, Dawes was combative (winning a game-high 21 contested possessions) as she was prolific (27 disposals). Another feature of the pocket dynamo's game was her two-way work, winning eight intercept possessions and affecting seven tackles in a great all-round performance.

 Up next

The Lions will try to make it eight on the trot next Sunday, and solidify their spot in the top four, when travelling south to play Geelong at GMHBA Stadium (1.05pm AEDT). Gold Coast is running out of chances to grab a win, but next Saturday's trip to play the Swans in Sydney at 3.05pm (AEDT) presents one of those.

BRISBANE               2.2     5.3     5.4     6.8 (44)
GOLD COAST          2.0     3.1     3.3     4.4 (28)

GOALS
Brisbane: Smith 2, Hodder, Hartill, Davidson, Conway
Gold Coast: Oliver 2, Bohanna 2

BEST 
Brisbane: Dawes, Anderson, Koenen, Conway, Dunne, Grider
Gold Coast: McLaughlin, D'Arcy, Lynch, Single, Rowbottom, Girvan

INJURIES
Brisbane: Nil
Gold Coast: Nil

LATE CHANGES
Brisbane: Nil
Gold Coast: Clara Fitzpatrick (illness) replaced in selected side by Kiara Bischa

Reports: Nil

Crowd: 3,142 at Brighton Homes Arena