First semi-final: West Coast (third) v Collingwood (sixth), Subiaco Oval, 6.45pm Friday (Perth time)
UNiTAB market: Collingwood $1.85, West Coast $1.90
Head to head: Round two, Eagles by 12 points
How they got here:
West Coast: Lost a three-point Friday night thriller to Port Adelaide after leading by as many as four goals in the third quarter. More importantly, the Eagles lost Ben Cousins with a hamstring injury and (subsequently) skipper Chris Judd to an ankle problem.
Collingwood: Collingwood’s big forward trio of Anthony Rocca, Travis Cloke and Sean Rusling kicked into gear and kicked a combined 12 goals, ending Sydney’s season in the process. The Pies jumped out of the blocks smartly and then withstood everything a tired Sydney outfit could muster.
Match-up to watch: Darren Glass (West Coast) v Anthony Rocca (Collingwood): Collingwood tend to go as far as Rocca’s forward play takes them – which means they swing between a long way and not a great distance. Last week, with Rocca on song and kicking 6.0, the Pies convincingly accounted for the Swans. All-Australian custodian Glass looms as the man most likely to get the stopping job.
The breakdown: The Eagles are starved of stars, with Cousins, Judd and Daniel Kerr on the sidelines. But it would be folly to underestimate last year’s premiers and the $1.90 being offered about them still looks pretty attractive. The Pies were excellent last week but there remain questions over their midfield pace – meaning West Coast’s “second-string” runners are unlikely to be torn apart. The battle between Dean Cox and Josh Fraser in the ruck is also destined to be a crucial one.
Second semi-final: Kangaroos (fourth) v Hawthorn (fifth), MCG, 7.30pm Saturday (EST):
UNiTAB market: Hawthorn $1.48, Kangaroos $2.55
Head to head: Round three, Hawks by 21 points; Round 17 Kangaroos by 37 points
How they got here:
Hawthorn: the Hawks grabbed a thrilling three-point win over Adelaide in the best game of the finals’ opening weekend. Lance Franklin kicked three last quarter goals, including the match-winner with 20 seconds left, to send the Crows into mothballs for 2007.
Kangaroos: the less said the better for the Kangaroos’ qualifying finals appearance against Geelong. The Roos kept pace with the minor premier for the first 20 minutes but were thrashed thereafter and lost by 106 points.
Match-up to watch: Lance Franklin (Hawthorn) v Michael Firrito (Adelaide): Whoever the Roos, choose to play on Franklin, it’s going to be a potential match-up drama. Last weekend “Buddy” destroyed the Crows and established himself as a big game performer with a match-turning seven goals. Firrito is a vastly underrated and skillful defender – but can he match it with the gun young Hawk?
The breakdown: Hawthorn were superb last week in a pressure-cooker elimination final but anyone taking the $1.48 about them would have to have a short memory – or didn’t see the Hawks get thumped by Sydney in round 22. Similarly, the Kangaroos ($2.55) have defied the odds and the doubters all season and are well and truly capable of doing so again. The said, they’d need to improve markedly on last week, when Geelong was irresistible but the boys in the lighter shade of blue and white were woeful.