It promises to be a long, anxious night for Lachie Neale on Monday night as he looks to become the first Brisbane player and just the 16th player in AFL history to win multiple Brownlow Medals.
There is every chance it will come down to the last game of the year, and whether Neale can scrounge even one vote from a 58-point loss to Melbourne at the Gabba in Round 23, when he had 29 possessions, six tackles and three goal assists in a badly beaten side.
If voting in the AFL Coach’s Association Player of the Year Award is a reliable guide, as it was when Neale won the Brownlow in the Covid-shortened 2020 season, Neale will go into the count a slight favourite.
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A conversion of the 5-4-3-2-1 votes from each coach after each game into notional 3-2-1 Brownlow votes, or ‘Coachlow’ votes, sees Neale head the count with 24.5 votes from Port Adelaide bolter Connor Rozee on 22.25.
Carlton’s Patrick Cripps and Gold Coast’s Touk Miller poll 21.5 ‘Coachlow’ votes to finish equal third ahead of Melbourne’s Clayton Oliver (21) and Geelong’s Jeremy Cameron (21), Melbourne’s Christian Petracca (19.5) and Fremantle’s Andrew Brayshaw (19.33).
Hugh McCluggage will poll 13.83 ‘Coachlow’ votes to rank second among Brisbane players and potentially steal some crucial votes from Neale, while next best of the Brisbane players will be Zac Bailey (6.5), Keidean Coleman (6) and Charlie Cameron (6).
Statistically Neale has had a better year in 2022 than he did in 2020, when he polled 31 votes in 17 games at an astonishing votes-per-game average of 1.82 that would have won the medal every year since its inception 1924. He was best afield in 10 games – all wins - and polled one vote in a loss as the Lions went 14-3 through the home-and-away season.
As the Lions went 15-7 through the 2022 home-and-away season Neale’s average possession count was up 2.61 possessions to 30.14 and he is up 3.44 contested possessions per game to 15.91. He’s up 1.98 clearances per game to 7.27, up 1.43 tackles per game to 4.55 and has had 13 goal assists this year after just one in 2020. His score involvements are up from 6.0 per game to 6.7, and his score launches are up from 2.1 to 2.5.
The only key statistic in which he is down this year is his goals. Although he kicked 11 goals in each year he’s down from 0.65 per game in 2020 to 0.50 per game this year. His overall disposal efficiency is down from 72.0% to 69.8%.
In what could be a good thing for Neale, the ‘Coachlow’ voting suggests the leading contenders this year will poll fewer votes than last year, when Port Adelaide’s Ollie Wines (36) won the Brownlow from the Western Bulldogs’ Marcus Bontempelli (33), Melbourne’s Clayton Oliver (30) and Carlton’s Sam Walsh (30).
Neale will look to go one Brownlow ahead of Brisbane’s three winners – Michael Voss (1996), Jason Akermanis (2001) and Simon Black (2002) – and take to 13 the total number of Brownlows in the combined Lions family of Brisbane and Fitzroy.
Despite the fact that it is 26 years since Fitzroy’s last game in 1996 the ‘old’ Lions still sit fifth on the all-time Brownlow leaderboard with eight behind only Sydney (14), St.Kilda (10), Western Bulldogs (10) and Collingwood (9).
Haydn Bunton, winner in 1931-32-35, heads the Fitzroy list from Wilfred ‘Chicken’ Smallhorn (1933), Denis Ryan (1936), Alan Ruthven (1950), Kevin Murray (1969) and Bernie Quinlan (1981).
So what can Lions fans expect in the 2022 count?
There were 10 games in which Brisbane players received the maximum 10 votes from both coaches, equating to three-vote Brownlow hauls. Neale will get four of them, McCluggage three, and Bailey, Charlie Cameron and Cam Rayner one each.
There were three other games where Brisbane players topped the coaches voting – Neale did so once outright and once in a three-way tie, with Lincoln McCarthy getting the other. Neale also was ranked second-best to McCluggage twice by the coaches.
Certainly, the coaches votes suggest that if the 29-year-old midfielder is going to win his second Brownlow he’ll need to maximise his votes in 10 rounds – Rounds 2-5-8-9-11-13-19-21-23. He is not expected to poll in the other 12 games.
The round-by-round Coachlow Leaderboard shows Carlton captain Patrick Cripps lead the count through the first four rounds, and after conceding it to Melbourne’s Christian Petracca in Round 5, he takes it back again in Round 6 and holding it until Round 10.
Neale jumps to the top of the leaderboard in Round 11 and stays there until, going into the last round, is one of only three players who can win. It’s Neale (23.5) from Gold Coast’s Touk Miller (21.5) and Geelong’s Jeremy Cameron (21).
Miller and Cameron don’t poll in Round 23, while Rozee takes maximum votes in the Adelaide Showdown to catapult into second spot overall 2.2 votes behind Neale after the Lions ace picks up one vote in the last game against Melbourne.
Neale goes into the 2022 Brownlow vote-count with 65 votes in Brisbane colors to rank ninth on the club list. Nineteen votes would take him past Tom Rockliff (68), Dayne Zorko (80) and Luke Power (83), leaving only Akermanis (91), Nigel Lappin (93), Jonathan Brown (112), Voss (150) and Black (184) ahead of him.
The former Fremantle star has 128 career votes, 57th on the all-time list, and with 22 votes would become the 34th player in history to reach 150 votes.
At the other end of the scale, rising Brisbane ace Keidean Coleman will go into the 2022 count tipped to pick up his first career vote during a golden run of form in the second half of the season.
Expectations round-by-round for Lions fans should be:-
R1 – Brisbane 11-14 (80) d Port Adelaide 10-9 (69) at Gabba
Port’s Dan Houston received 10 coaches votes, with Brisbane’s Joe Daniher picking up eight votes after he kicked four goals three behinds. Lachie Neale had 31 possessions, six tackles and seven clearances but only two coaches votes.
R2 – Brisbane 15-7 (97) d Essendon 10-15 (75) at Marvel Stadium
Expect Lachie Neale to pick up three votes here after his 41 possessions (22 contested), two goals, 12 clearances and a career-best three contested marks earned him maximum coaches votes. Hugh McCluggage (19 possessions and three goals) and Dayne Zorko (33 possessions) could also figure.
R3 – Brisbane 23-18 (156) d North Melbourne 7-6 (48) at Gabba
Lincoln McCarthy was judged best by the coaches, picking up nine votes for his career-best five goals. Jarryd Lyons (28 possessions and two goals) and Zac Bailey (17 possessions and four goals) are also expected to figure in the votes.
R4 – Geelong 11-14 (80) d Brisbane 11-4 (70) at Geelong
Dan McStay was clearly the Lions’ best in a fluctuating affair at Geelong according to the coaches with 14 possessions, 11 marks (four contested marks) and three goals. Cats’ Isaac Smith and Tom Hawkins were rated best afield.
R5 – Brisbane 15-8 (98) d Collingwood 14-7 (91) at Gabba
Lachie Neale was at his brilliant best in the Easter Thursday Gabba blockbuster against Collingwood with 33 possessions and a goal to earn maximum votes from the coaches. Hugh McCluggage (27 possessions) could also figure.
R6 – Brisbane 21-6 (132) d Gold Coast 11-14 (80) at Metricon Stadium
Zac Bailey’s career-best six goals in the first Q-Clash of the Year earned him the Marcus Ashcroft Medal and maximum votes from the coaches, while Hugh McCluggage (22 possessions and nine tackles) and Jarryd Lyons (30 possessions, 10 tackles, 13 clearances and and a goal) each received seven coaches votes.
R7 – Brisbane 17-11 (113) d Sydney 13-11 (89) at SCG
Lachie Neale polled 10 coaches votes in the Lions’ excellent win in Sydney after 37 possessions, including a career-best 26 contested possessions, plus a goal, nine tackles and 11 clearances. Dayne Zorko (22 possessions and two goals) and Sydney’s Lance Franklin (six goals) polled seven votes from the coaches.
R8 – Brisbane 16-9 (105) d West Coast 4-6 (30) at Gabba
Hugh McCluggage’s 29 possessions and equal career-best four goals earned him full votes from both coaches, while Lachie Neale (29 possessions and 10 clearances) shared second billing with Charlie Cameron (four goals).
R9 – Brisbane 16-6 (102) d Adelaide 9-12 (66) at Adelaide Oval
Lachie Neale again picked up 10 votes from the coaches for 36 possessions (19 contested) and a goal in the hard-fought win in Adelaide, while Charlie Cameron (four goals) and Dayne Zorko (26 possessions and two goals) each receiving seven votes.
R10 – Hawthorn 18-9 (117) d Brisbane 17-10 (112) in Launceston
Jarryd Lyons (32 possessions and nine clearances) and Daniel Rich (33 possessions and a goal) were the Lions best in Launceston as Hawthorn’s Jai Newcombe earned 10 votes from the coaches.
R11 – Brisbane 16-14 (110) d GWS 15-6 (96) at Gabba
Lachie Neale’s 39 possessions, two goals and nine clearances earned him nine votes from the coaches, while Jarrod Berry (33 possessions and a goal) and Lincoln McCarthy (four goals) were rated next best.
R12 – Fremantle 15-9 (99) d Brisbane 13-7 (85) at Perth Stadium
Fremantle young guns Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong topped the coaches votes, with Zac Bailey (22 possessions and four goals) the only Brisbane player who could catch the eye of the umpires.
R13 – Brisbane 10-18 (78) d St.Kilda 8-9 (57) at Gabba
Hugh McCluggage picked up maximum votes from the coaches for his 33 possessions, a goal and seven clearances, while Lachie Neale (37 possessions and seven clearances) and Keidean Coleman (19 possessions) picked up seven and six votes from the coaches respectively as the Lions came from 12 points down at halftime.
R14 – Bye
R15 – Melbourne 16-21 (117) d Brisbane 7-11 (53) at MCG
No votes for the Lions. Melbourne’s Jack Viney took maximum votes from the coaches, who also fancied the performances of Jake Lever, Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver.
R16 – Brisbane 16-12 (108) d Western Bulldogs 9-13 (67) at Gabba
Charlie Cameron (four goals and 10 votes) and Keidean Coleman (24 possessions and eight votes) led the bounce-back Thursday night home win, while Neale had 33 possessions, a goal, seven tackles and six clearances for three votes from the coaches.
R17 – Essendon 15-10 (100) d Brisbane 13-12 (90) at Gabba
Don’t expect too many Brisbane votes after the Covid intrusion meant coach Chris Fagan had to make nine changes. Bombers Jy Caldwell and Peter Wright split the votes.
R18 – Brisbane 15-9 (99) d GWS 9-5 (59) in Canberra
Hugh McCluggage (29 possessions and four goals and 10 votes) led the way in the national capital with Keidean Coleman (25 possessions and five votes) and Rhys Mathieson (23 possessions and 19 clearances for four votes). Neale had 26 possessions but no votes from the coaches.
R19 – Brisbane 16-14 (110) d Gold Coast 14-9 (93) at Gabba
Gold Coast’s Touk Miller won the Marcus Ashcroft Medal in the Gabba Q-Clash, but the coaches couldn’t split Miller, Lachie Neale (32 possessions) and Brandon Starcevich, who shut down Suns dangerman Izak Rankine. Each player received eight votes.
R20 – Richmond 15-14 (104) d Brisbane 14-13 (97) at MCG
Keidean Coleman’s first 30-possession game saw him top the Brisbane voting with the coaches in the disappointing final quarter fade-out against the Tigers. Tom Lynch and Shai Bolton shared best afield honours while two Sunshine Coast juniors – one in each side – were prominent in front of goal. Eric Hipwood kicked four for Brisbane and Lions Academy product Noah Cumberland five for Richmond to figure in the coaches votes. Lachie Neale had 31 possessions for one vote from the coaches.
R21 – Brisbane 17-12 (114) d Carlton 12-9 (81) at Gabba
Lachie Neale, Zac Bailey and Oscar McInerney led a hostile Brisbane ‘welcome party’ for favorite son turned Carlton coach Michael Voss. Neale’s 32 possessions (20 contested) and a goal earned him nine votes from the coaches, while Bailey’s 19 possessions and four goals earned him eight votes, and McInerney received seven votes for his 19 possessions (16 contested), 37 hit-outs and eight clearances.
R22 – Brisbane 12-9 (81) d St.Kilda 9-12 (66) at Marvel Stadium
A breakout game of 18 possessions and four goals from Cam Rayner earned him maximum votes from the coaches and is expected to deliver the second three-vote Brownlow Medal rating of his career, but don’t expect too much else. Hugh McCluggage (24 possessions and a goal) received four votes from the coaches.
R23 – Melbourne 18-7 (115) d Brisbane 8-9 (57) at Gabba
Lachie Neale was the only Brisbane player recognised by the coaches, earning four votes for his team-high 29 possessions in a Friday night disappointment against the defending premiers as the Demons’ Clayton Oliver (10 votes) and Kysaiah Neale (seven votes) took top billing.
WHAT AWARDS WILL LACHIE PICK UP AT CLUB CHAMPS? BUY YOUR TICKETS TO FIND OUT
