WITH two matches to go, the ninth-placed Brisbane Lions are locked in a battle with the Sydney Swans, Collingwood, St Kilda and Richmond for positions inside the top eight.

Even the Lions’ opponent at the Gabba this week, Carlton, remain a very slim mathematical chance of playing in September.

The Lions will travel to Sydney to take on the Swans in round 22, but how does the run home stack up for the rest of their rivals? Read on to find out…

1. Geelong (19-1, 159.11 per cent)
Last five: WWWWW
To come: North Melbourne; West Coast

Comment: Red hot but set to face their toughest challenge in some time this weekend in the shape of the equally in-form North Melbourne. Barring unforeseen circumstances, the Cats will become the first team to rack up 20 home-and-away wins since Essendon in 2000.

2. Hawthorn (15-5, 125.78 per cent)
Last five: WLLWL
To come: West Coast (in Perth); Carlton

Comment: Hardly time for panic stations but last week’s loss to Richmond was unexpected. Will be keen to round out regular season with a pair of wins.

3. Western Bulldogs (14-5-1, 118.49 per cent)
Last five: LLWLL
To come: Essendon, Adelaide (in Adelaide)

Comment: Last week’s loss to the Lions takes the Bulldogs’ post-round 15 record since and including 2006 to five wins, a draw and 15 defeats. On the slide or merely in cruise mode ahead of the finals?

4. North Melbourne (12-7-1, 102.23 per cent)
Last five: WWWWW
To come: Geelong, Port Adelaide

Comment: The big movers of the last month-and-a-half, winning six straight to occupy fourth on the ladder. Crunch clash with Geelong this week but should beat Port Adelaide in round 22.

5. Adelaide (12-8 113.01 per cent)
Last five: LWWWW
To come: St Kilda (in Melbourne), Western Bulldogs

Comment: A real sleeper for a top-four spot and could well take possession of fourth with a win this weekend. The round 22 match with the Bulldogs shapes as a pivotal one for both clubs.

6. Sydney Swans (11-8-1, 112.77 per cent)
Last five: WLLWL
To come: Collingwood (in Melbourne), Brisbane Lions

Comment: At one stage the Swans looked odds-on to finish in the top-four – now they might be battling just to make the eight. The round 22 meeting with the Lions promises to be a cracker.

7. Collingwood (11-9, 111.03 per cent)
Last five: LLLWW
To come: Sydney Swans, Fremantle (in Perth)

Comment: With a healthy percentage, the Pies would seem to need only one more victory to ensure September participation. Both their remaining outings are tough, including a rare trip out of Victoria to face Freo.

8. St Kilda (11-9, 102.56 per cent)
Last five: WLWLW
To come: Adelaide, Essendon

Comment: Gave their finals aspirations an enormous boost by coming from behind with a percentage-lifting away win over Fremantle in round 20. Can they upset the in-form Crows this week?

10. Richmond (9-10-1, 93.16 per cent)
Last five: WWLLW
To come: Fremantle, Melbourne

Comment: Looked only a minor mathematical hope of playing finals a week ago – but that was before a shock upset of Hawthorn. Still only an outside chance, but have two winnable games to come.

11. Carlton (9-11, 96.88 per cent)
Last five: LWLWL
To come: Brisbane Lions (at the Gabba), Hawthorn.

Comment: All but out of the finals race, with only an unlikely combination of favourable results likely to return them to the hunt. But this week’s match at the Gabba is likely to be crucial for the Lions’ September hopes.

The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.