Grand final: Geelong (first) v Hawthorn (second), MCG, 2.30pm Saturday
UNiTAB market: Geelong $1.45; Hawthorn $2.65
Last time they met: round 17, Geelong by 11 points.
Geelong – A more than comfortable path to a second straight grand final, even if last week’s preliminary final was closer than some might have expected. The Cats barely raised a sweat in eclipsing St Kilda by 58 points in the first week of the finals, before ending the Bulldogs’ season with a 29-point victory last Friday night. The Dogs pulled within two goals in the third quarter and wasted some good chances, but the Cats got the job done in typically clinical fashion.
Hawthorn – Hawthorn has shaken off the disappointment of last year’s finals exit at the hands of North Melbourne with two very assured September efforts in 2008. With a touch more accuracy the Hawks would have beaten the Bulldogs by even more than 51 points in a qualifying final. But Alastair Clarkson’s side had its radar back on last week against St Kilda, completely dominating the final three quarters en route to a 54-point triumph.
Geelong – In a case of déjà vu, the Cats again had to deal with a grand final week selection drama. Last year’s unlucky soul, young ruckman Mark Blake, was safe this time. But 2007 premiership player David Wojcinski, who battled injury in the run-in to the finals, was omitted to make way for fit-again Paul Chapman. For the second year in a row Gary Ablett fell short as favourite for the Brownlow Medal, finishing two votes behind Adam Cooney in third place.
Hawthorn – For a while it looked like Hawthorn might “do a Geelong” and replace inexperienced big man Brent Renouf with the more seasoned Simon Taylor. But the Hawks have picked an unchanged side and kept their faith in 20-year-old Southport product Renouf. While there has been plenty of speculation about the health of Luke Hodge’s ribs, the Hawthorn playing group has openly promised a “tough” grand final.
Matthew Scarlett (Geelong) v Lance Franklin (Hawthorn): If the round 17 clash is anything to go by, then Scarlett is unlikely to start the game on Franklin. But if he does eventually go to the ace Hawks goalkicker, it’s likely to be a good indicator of the state of play. Last time out, first-year defender Harry Taylor began on Buddy but Scarlett took over when Franklin saw plenty of early supply. The centurion eventually blazed his way to 4.5 and the result might have been reversed had he kicked straight. Scarlett was a star in last year’s grand final playing his usual free-running game in defence and the Cats would prefer it stayed that way. Andrew Mackie is also another candidate for the Buddy match-up, but again Geelong would probably prefer he played a more creative role in the back half.
There have been plenty of references this week to the last epic grand final encounter between these two sides in 1989. The comparisons would appear to be valid too, with both sides expected to play an enterprising brand of football (even if Franklin, the man most likely to match Gary Ablett Snr’s famous nine-goal return, is a Hawk rather than a Cat). Geelong and Hawthorn have consistently been the best two sides throughout the season and, after a finals series without a bona fide epic, most observers are hoping for a thriller. Neither side has a glaringly obvious weakness – the Hawks have an X-factor in Franklin, while the Cats have the benefit of grand final experience from last year and the confidence that goes with having won 42 of your last 44 games.
The Hawks are a great side and Franklin could almost win it single-handedly. But Geelong didn’t win four more games than any other club this season for no reason. The Cats by 14 points.
