LAST TIME: Western Bulldogs 19.9 (123) d Brisbane Lions 6.9 (45), round two, 2011 at Etihad Stadium
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Just when the Western Bulldogs should have been enjoying the spoils of a solid win over Port Adelaide, the club became embroiled in a sledging controversy that resulted in a one-match suspension to in-form ruckman Will Minson. The Bulldogs are just a win and 1.4 per cent clear of the Lions but should prove too good at home, particularly as they have belted the Lions by 65 and 78 points in their past two encounters. A Dogs win would keep them in the hunt for an unlikely top-eight berth.
THE FOUR POINTS
WESTERN BULLDOGS
1. The loss of Will Minson is significant, with the Bulldogs No. 1 ruckman enjoying the best of his nine seasons at AFL level. His absence means young Jordan Roughead will have to step up and fill the void - a big ask, and a steep learning curve against former teammate Ben Hudson. Roughead might get some respite from his taller mate Ayce Cordy.
2. The Dogs' inaccuracy for three quarters last week - by which stage they had blazed 9.16 - kept Port Adelaide in the match and was a source of great frustration for players, coaches and fans alike. Among the culprits were even the normally deadly Daniel Giansiracusa and Tory Dickson, who missed regulation shots. The Dogs slotted 4.1 in the final term, and will look to continue in the same vein.
3. The Dogs' attack is likely to look more balanced and less top-heavy with Minson out. It means Roughead and Cordy will alternate in the ruck and Liam Jones will continue as a permanent forward target. It seems a more viable option than having all three as the only players inside the forward 50, as was the case at time last week.
4. Did we gain a glimpse of one of the competition's most dashing defences last week? The ever-brilliant Bob Murphy and youngster Easton Wood and Christian Howard amassed 32 touches between them by quarter-time, and it was irresistible stuff. Long may it continue.
BRISBANE LIONS
1. In a number of losses this year, the Lions have struggled to get the ball inside 50. Last week the midfield matched Hawthorn in clearances (41-39) and contested possessions (150-155) but got the ball inside 50 just 41 times. They must move the ball quicker and more efficiently to give Jonathan Brown and his fellow forwards a chance to kick a winning score.
2. The Lions have a horrible record at Etihad Stadium in recent years and have been blown away in the first quarter of both matches there in 2012. Against Essendon they trailed by 26 points at quarter-time in round six and against North Melbourne it was 20 at the quarter and 52 at the half three weeks later. It's stating the obvious to say that needs to change against the Dogs.
3. It's becoming a more important question for teams - do you tag the inside or outside player? Andrew Raines has moulded himself into a terrific run-with player and will have his hands full whichever way Michael Voss decides to go. Last time the teams met, (in round two, 2011) Matthew Boyd and Ryan Griffen received three and two Brownlow Medal votes respectively and again are in fine touch. Raines has been effective against both inside (Joel Selwood) and outside (Stephen Hill) players this year.
4. Robert Murphy and Brian Lake are not only class defenders for the Bulldogs but often catalysts to springboard them into attack from the back half. The Lions' forwards will need to be diligent in applying pressure to keep the ball locked in or they're in for a long afternoon. Dayne Zorko (seven) led the tackle count last week but will need plenty of mates on Saturday.
AFL.com.au prediction: Western Bulldogs by 19 points
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL
